Thursday, December 28, 2006

In Defense Of Defense

This post is for those who feel the need to rag on our catchers.

Ronny Leonel Paulino finally made the big leagues last season at the age of 25. No, he isn't a wet-eared prospect of 22 or so, but there are very few players who make the majors prior to age 24 unless either a) they are a phenom or b) their organization has noone else and rushed them through the system. So playing almost a full season at 25 is pretty good, especially considering that up until 2002 he was trapped behind Kendall, Cota, and Doumit on the depth chart and was therefore brought along slowly until Doumit started getting hurt.

Paulino had, IMO, a great season offensively. He finished the year with .310/.360/.754 (avg/obp/ops) including 6 HR and 55 RBI. That would be considered a slightly above average season for any catcher, let alone a rookie. Add into that the fact that he did that while trying to learn everything on the fly (since his defensive game was far from polished coming into the year) and I'd give that offensive year a solid B-. His minor league track record would suggest that as a line he is capable of maintaining, though a dip in average to go along with a slight bump in HR (and consequently SLG and OPS) wouldn't be a surprise. That to me qualifies as an everyday bat at the major league level.

Paulino had a very average defensive year, but I consider that very pleasing, again considering everything else he had to worry about, but also because that was pretty much projected as close to his ceiling. His passed balls were high (9) and probably should have been higher if not for some generous scorekeeping, but he got better in chunks as the year went by, and more experience with the pitching staff will only make him better. Same goes for throwing out baserunners. It's hard to anticipate well enough to throw a guy out when you've never faced him in a game. A year under his belt will get him better at that as well. Also, now that he has a year of rapport with the pitchers and umpires (and doesn't press so hard to frame pitches) he'll get more calls, which will improve the pitching numbers.

I think Ronny definitely has room to turn into...I'll be safe and say one of the 5 best catchers in the NL.

Monday, December 25, 2006

Hallelujah

Jeff Suppan isn't a Pirate, thank goodness. Thus continues the trend of other teams stepping in to help Dave Littlefield avoid poor decisions (kinda like a free-agent signing wingman?).

Suppan got 4 years at $42 million, which on performance merit alone is probably a bit more than he's worth, but that contract is a downright theft compared to Ted Lilly and Gil Meche, especially considering his value to the Brewers (I think, if all are healthy, Capuano - Suppan - Sheets - Villanueva - Bush is a B- rotation at worst, and easily the most complete rotation in the division).

Much is floating around the blogosphere about a still-simmering LaRoche or Cabrera trade. I am not going to jump in the fray, since (as I have said before) pulling off either trade would represent a significant step up for Littlefield in at least getting 80 cents to the dollar in a trade for once. I don't think it unreasonable for the Pirates to be considered a big upgrade if they were to make either of those trades and sign Aubrey Huff (both of which would happen, of course, under the assumption that both acquired players wouldn't regress in '07).

That's all, just a brief update whilst I sit here on Christmas security shift.

until the news reignites...

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Backloading

This article brought to you by the Toronto Blue Jays and Vernon Wells.

The Jays wanted to lock up Wells long-term to keep him from walking in free agency after the coming season. They also knew it was going to cost a pretty penny after the 7 year, $136 million deal that was given to Alfonso Soriano. So they offered and then agreed upon an 8 year, $126 million extension for Wells.

You're saying "Holy Cow, Vernon Wells for $15.75 a year?! What a steal!" Not so fast, my friend. In reality, Wells is going to make $500,000 this coming season, then $1,900,000 in 2008. Then he'll average $20 million over six seasons after that. This is a severe case of mortgaging your future to pay for the present. It is certainly a steal to be getting Wells in his prime for an incredibly miniscule $1.2 million per year this year and next (plus incentives). Robbery even. However, in order to do that, they'll be paying him a king's ransom going beyond that point, which means odds are Wells will retire a Blue Jay. But the Jays are stuck with this contract now, and if they don't win big this year or next, they then have severely limited their ability to compete moving forward by having that massive contract on the books.

I never understood backloading anyways. Instead of giving a guy 8 million per for three years, then 15 per over three more years (based on the obvious assumption that he'll be traded by then) why not just offer him a three year, $24 million deal instead of a 6 year, 69 million deal?

Musings

So Cory asked the question in his blog. Why exactly is it that the Braves are so keen on trading Adam LaRoche?

I've got a theory. Right now the Braves jave LaRoche at 1B, with really nobody behind him. They have McCann at catcher, and behind him is Jarrod Saltalamacchia. My first intuition is that McCann isn't going anywhere at C, and they would rather move LaRoche to make room for Saltalamacchia.

Saltalamacchia is listed as the Braves' #1 hitting prospect by a wide margin. That is understandable, since he tore up A+ ball in 2005 to the tune of 19 HR, 81 RBI and a .314 AVG. But then last year, he disappeared a bit, hitting .230 with 9 HR and 39 RBI, and for some odd reason he missed pretty much the last month of the season.

If he was hurt, this perhaps lends credence to the theory that he's taking a beating behind the plate. It has always been rumored that Salty would be moved anyways, since 6'4" is big for a catcher. However, even if they do move him, he'll need this year to rediscover his hitting, then next year to lear 1B or OF...

Had Salty had a year in 06 like he did in 05, the Braves would have an issue of his starting this year at AAA and being blocked by McCann. However, it would seem that his (temporary?) regression would have eliminated any need to clear up a minor logjam.

So perhaps the mystery remains...

A Little Fun

Just for kicks, I have decided that this year, 2007, will be all about the middle. Since the Pirates are searching to reach middling success (.500), the Pirated team will be referred to by their middle names.

C Leonel Paulino
1B Matt Doumit/Ross Eldred
2B Jose Castillo
SS Geno Wilson
3B Philip Sanchez/Antonio Bautista
LF Raymond Bay
CF Ellis Duffy
RF Rich McClouth
BN Lavae Davis/Figueroa Cota/Diego Gerut

SP Dante Snell
SP Tom Duke
SP G. Maholm
SP Steve Gorzelanny
SP Tony Chacon

RP Vela Gonzalez
RP Savinon Marte
RP Dicus Capps


i think our team sounds much cooler. but that's me.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Bad Rep

So according to the "experts", the two best unsigned FA hitters are Shea Hillenbrand and Aubrey Huff. Much has been said about what poor decisions these two players would be for the Pirates. I am not so quick to jump on the bandwagon. Some random facts that may or may not sway your opinions...

Hillenbrand is not a terrible hitter, he just isn't necessarily Lefty McThump. From the start of the '03 season through the middle of last season (when he was traded from Toronto to San Francisco and stopped getting everyday at-bats) he was averaging (based on the loose but not unreasonable assumption of 580 AB's = full season) .300 - 18 - 80. Now, those aren't amazing numbers, but they're an improvement on anything we've had in recent years. I think he would be a reasonable investment if he could produce like that and we could get him for no more than 4 to 4.5 million per (say 2 years 9 mil?)

Huff. Poor poor Aubrey Huff. The man hit .261 - 22 - 92 in '05, his worst year to that point, which i find rather impressive. Last year Huff played in 63 games for Tampa and hit .283 - 8 - 28 up until his trade. That is very respectable - it translates to roughly .283 - 20 - 71 over a full season. Add into that the fact that he is traditionally a slow starter (career .250 in April/May and .298 after that), and that his slow start was exaggerated by missing almost a month with injury, and those numbers are much more impressive (in the 44 games between his first post-injury hit and the trade, he hit .346). Then he went and played 68 games for Houston. Forgive me for being impressed, but .250 - 13 - 38 in only 224 AB's is pretty darned good (especially considering those numbers are .274 - 8 - 21 AWAY from Minute Maid Park). I figure, worst case scenario he becomes Sean Casey, but that's a reach considering his better track record as far as power. Again, I have no problem with the Pirates offering him a reasonable and short-term contract.

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Intrigue Abounds

Another curious discovery...

Dejan reports in today's paper that one of the players the Pirates signed to a minor league contract is Chris Aguila, late of the Florida Marlins.

Here we have a guy who, when he was first drafted back in '97, was coming off setting a national record for most home runs by a high-schooler. It's obvious that was a bit of fluff, since he has been anything but a power hitter since then. He isn't devoid, however. Strange numbers, though. Over the past three seasons:

AAA 770 AB's, .322 AVG, 29 HR, 142 RBI
MLB 215AB's, .239 AVG, 0 HR, 12 RBI

So why in the world would the Pirates take a run at this 27 year old? Hopefully, a "let's see what you really got" type approach is what we have. Judging by the numbers, it is rather obvious (even if it is the PCL) that Aguila doesn't have much more, if anything, to prove at the minor league level. I looked into his numbers, and I think it is safe to say that 1) 215 AB's over three seasons hardly counts as a usable sample size, especially when almost 1/3 of those at-bats were pinch-hit at-bats sprinkled over periods of time, and 2) at least part of this lack of time was due to being behind Jeremy Hermida on the Marlin's depth chart, and then eventually behind Josh Wilingham too. It should be interesting to see if he could manage a 15-20 HR, 70-80 RBI, .280-.290 AVG - y'know, the production we only pray mcclouth or gerut could provide?

Just saying, keep an eye on him this year.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

More Ideas

There's another intriguing name floating about on the non-tender list, who would be a great idea if the Pirates were actually risk takers. No, I'm not talking about the wickedly pedestrian Jerome Williams and Joel Piniero. I am talking about ex-phenom Rick Ankiel, who was non-tendered by St. Louis.

"Hey," you say, "isn't that the pitcher who fell apart in St. Louis?"

Yes, that's the one. However, he is also a guy who spent last season in A+ and AA ball and hit .259 with 21 homers and 75 RBI. Yes, all you naysayers will remind me that a 24 year old is considered old for AA, let alone a 26 year old like Ankiel. However, I think that is at least partially cancelled out by the fact that it was his first full season as a hitter in pro ball. Those are very good numbers for the first time around at any level, especially from a guy who was expected to do nothing.
I know his continuing that success and progressing is far from guaranteed, but I don't think adding him to a roster would require much of an investment, and if he did succeed it would be quite the steal.

But that will never happen, because Rick Ankiel is no Trot Nixon.

Too Bad

I blurted out the thought "wonder if the Pirates would pursue Marcus Giles" when I saw he was non-tendered by Atlanta. Then I remembered that the Pirates are a bit heavy in the middle of the infield...but I can't help but want numbers like this on my team...Marcus Giles is basically a good defensive 2B who lit it up in his first full season ('03) then was hurt in '04 and didnt work out as a leadoff hitter last year. In spite of all that, over the last 3 seasons since his breakout...

(AVG/OBP/OPS)
.253/.335/.695 as a leadoff hitter
.301/.375/.835 otherwise (mostly #2/#3)

Giles also hit .333 in NLCD parks over that three year span, and for his career has hit .339 with 21 HR and 80 RBI in 556 AB's against the NLCD

I think numbers like that in spite of a rocky three seasons qualify as significant.

Unfortunately, it is rather obvious that Marcus would excel the best hitting either second or third, and unfortunately, the Pirates already have 4 guys who are most ideal in those spots (Bay, Sanchez, Wilson, and Bautista).

At the same time, the age-old argument could be brought up that having hitters in the right spot in the order is significantly less important than having the right hitters to begin with. If Giles, Sanchez and Wilson all produced offensively, who cares where they hit in the order? Besides, having Giles doesn't preclude playing Sanchez, since he is capable if not spectacular at 3B.

(I have no problem putting Bautista in the OF, and yes I am leaving Castillo off the roster in this situation. He's lighting up the VWL, whoopity-doo. He did it last year too, and look where that got us.)

So there it is. I have convinced myself. Use that avaiable 17 million a bit, offer up a 3 year, $18 million deal to Giles (wehave to overpay some, remember) and roll with it.

Grinding In the Rumor Mill

Thank goodness the Red Sox are seriously expressing their plans to sign Masumi Kuwata. They and the Pirates are the only teams in the running for him, but his being signed by either team doesn't make much sense. I suppose it is vaguely understandable to sign him to a minor league contract, take that minimal risk, and see what happens, but what can you seriously expect from a pitcher who has been pitching for 21 years and will be 39 on opening day? This isn't Salomon Torres who didn't pitch for three years, it's serious wear and tear on an arm. And I think it's beginning to show, considering Kuwata posted an ERA of roughly 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.67 over the past three seasons (03-05*).

Then there's the problem of ex-Red Sox. The Pirates are supposedly still pursuing Trot Nixon. Just a few problems with that. 1) He's 31 going on 38, 2) he has minimal power (17 HR the past 3 seasons). The age, that's unavoidable. That plus his overall batting numbers say it would be a miracle for him to be anything more than a platoon player (doesn't mean DL and Tracy wouldn't give him starter AB's). The power? I'm less worried about that. PNC Park, according to statistics, favors left-handed gap hitters, which is what Nixon is. Here's the bigger issue, though: he's a right fielder. Do the Pirates really believe that Nixon could give them better offensive production than Nate McClouth, Jody Gerut, Xavier Nady, Ryan Doumit, and Jose Bautista? I seriously doubt that happening.

Another rumor that was wafting in the breeze was the Pirates entering a three team deal where they would still trade Mike Gonzalez to Atlanta for 1B Adam LaRoche, but Gonzalez would then be traded to the Yankees for RHP (long reliever) Scott Proctor and OF Melky Cabrera. This trade makes sense in that the Pirates badly want LaRoche and the Braves badly want Proctor (and have since last season), but don't forget, this trade possibility was first breached by the NY Post, and we all know Yankee Nation is kinda like your buddy in the fantasy league who thinks he can pull off any trade as long as it benefits him.

Blame Game

The Blame Game is an annual event within the Pirate organization, usually with three standard players: Dave Littlefield, Kevin McClatchy, and Ogden Nutting.

This offseason, Dave was well in front with all of the public railing over at first not doing anything, then finally trying and failing to acquire Adam LaRoche from the Atlanta Braves.

There was a lot of he said-she said during the discussion of these events, but I personally am going to absolve DL of any immediate blame on this one. There were a lot of swirling rumors and double talk all over the place, enough so that the plain old "Dave Littlefield screwed up a golden opportunity" story doesn't fly with me.

The rumor I believe most is that he was being strung along by John Schuerholz, the Braves' GM, in the event that the deal he was working with Seattle fell through - it was his plan B (or so I assume. I would hope any smart GM would file "solid 1B prospect for setup reliever" as a secondary option to "back of the rotation starter for setup reliever").

Some said that Schuerholz created the Pirates deal to light a fire under Seattle GM Bill Bavasi to get that deal done, but that seems silly considering how potentially lopsided the deal is.

Now, there is some blame to be given to Dave Littlefield, since at the very least his reputation as a GM who could be unwittingly strung along is his own doing, and I don't think it says a lot when his inaction at the winter meetings is considered an improvement.

Let's just hope for continued marginal improvement, then maybe we'll actually get somewhere.

fresh start

I, much like Mr. Corey over at New Pirates Generation, have tired of MLB.com and their monthly fees. So Stealing Home has now been shipped and renamed.

Welcome to "82". Focusing on the suggestion of one Dejan Kovacevic, I am (regardless of the org plan) coining this as the slogan for the 2007 season. It is a number that does not need any explanation to the educated fan, and only minimal explanation to the casual fan. Sure, it's a modest goal, but you have to reach one goal before you can move on to the next. That being said....let's do some blogging!!