I have officially got the baseball juju back in my veins, as my 2007 copy of Baseball Prospectus has arrived in the post today. I shall waste no time, diving right into the potential starting lineup:
Catcher - Ronny Paulino"...was lost in the great flood of quality rookies of 2006, but posted a WARP3 (Wins Above Replacement Player) behind only Brian McCann (ATL) and Russell Martin (LAD)...a plus guy behind the plate, but his lack of noticeable secondary offensive skills are a bit worrisome in a regular; a batting average collapse would take his whole offensive game with it."
This sounds about right, though if he can put up the line that BP is projecting - 12-62-.289-.344-.440 - I don't think I would be too unhappy.
First Base - Adam LaRoche"...finally had a breakout season...was it a three month hot streak, or a new performance level?"
BP feels that he is peaking, and will most likely match his numbers from last year, rather than go up or down. I wouldn't particularly complain about that, and again, their projected line - 27-89-.283-.353-.526 - wouldn't be the end of the world, though it sure looks a lot like a certain player from 2004.
Second Base - Jose Castillo"...proves that anyone can be Albert Pujols for four weeks. after three years of waiting, it's time for the Pirates to consider moving on."
Ouch. Well, I can't say I'm not beginning to disagree with them. BP looks for him to duplicate his '05 season, which would certainly be some measure of improvement over last year, but not enough to justify keeping him on the field. Here's hoping he proves us all wrong.
Shortstop - Jack Wilson"...the kind of player who would get more attention for his fielding if he were surrounded by a team of real hitters...an $8.4 million option for 2010, or a $600,000 buyout; that will be the best six hundred grand the Pirates ever spent."
Another review that is not necessarily unwarranted, but certainly brutal. They're projecting Wilson to not be any better or worse on either side of the ball this season, which is not what I was hoping to hear (y'know, maybe get an excuse to not be pessimistic for once), but we'll certainly have to wait and see.
Third Base - Freddy Sanchez"...not to rain too hard on teh happy parade, but he is 29 already, doesn't hit the long ball, doesn't walk, and doesn't steal...if he were the team's shortstop, we'd be that much more excited about him...the kind of player who can hit .300 and not be all that productive"
Not very promising, though it seems they are down on Freddy more because he isn't a typical masher 3B like Cabrera, Chipper, etc. I'd like to have him at 2B (where this review would be less negative) but that won't happen. More on that later.
Left Field - Jason Bay"...a powerful presence cornered by the brutish, unthinking mediocrity of those around him...ala Ralph Kiner in the '40's, he's the sole star on a team seemingly unable to develop more than one player at a time. When Branch Rickey came to the Pirates, he believe the team could be jump-started by trading Kiner for a package of talent. Ownership dallied, and by the time Rickey pulled it off, Kiner was declining and they didn't get much back. The current Pirates aren't in the same position - moving Bay would probably destroy what little credibility they have...important to note that Bay got a late start, his VORP went down from 72.6 to 49.7, and his PECOTA comparables (Tim Salmon, Dale Murphy, Eric Davis, Jesse Barfield) all didn't have great second acts to their careers."
Whew. First of all, it's impressive to compare him to Kiner. Second, I'm not sure how trading Bay would affect the team's credibility (though I'm not sure there's any left, anyway). Third, that line about his PECOTA comparables isn't entirely true.
First, Tim Salmon. He had an age 27 year not unlike Bay's, going 30-98-.286/.386/.501. Salmon put up equally good numbers at age 28, slightly down but still good numbers at 29, bad numbers (though mostly due to injury) at age 30, then one last good year at 31 before he fell off the map. I'd call that respectable.
Second, Dale Murphy. He had an even more comparable year at age 27, posting 36-121-.302/.393/.540. Murphy then posted numbers just as good or better three times over the next four seasons before finally slowing down at age 32 (Murph is a HOFer for a reason).
Third, Eric Davis. He posted an age 27 year similar to Bay's, then immediately fell off the map after that. OK, so there's a warning flag.
Fourth, Jesse Barfield. Barfield had his big year at age 26, and anyone who followed stats could have predicted his immediate dropoff. That season was the only time Barfield ever broke 28HR or 85 RBI. He's more comparable in that way to Adrian Beltre than Bay.
His other two comparables are Jim Edmonds and Hack Wilson, both players who got
better after age 27.
So I think the negativity towards Bay is a bit unjustified at best.
Center Field - Chris Duffy"...if he can hit somewhere between [his 2006 post-return] rates and those projected in his PECOTA, he can be a useful fourth outfielder, or even a starter on some teams, such as this one."
I agree that a line like that would be nice (that would average out to roughly .290/.345/.391) though there is hardly any reason to hope for it. This is personally one spot where I would like to have my eternal pessimism proven wrong.
Right Field - Xavier Nady/Ryan DoumitNady: simply put, "a platoon player at best."
Doumit: "if he can stay healthy for more than two minutes at a time, he may be more valuable to the Pirates as a trading chip"
Not much to argue with on either count here. Nady's righty/lefty splits are disastrous, and Doumit was a very good bench player at best who has been bumped down the food chain even further by Paulino and LaRoche.
Bench/Waiting in the WingsBrian Bixler: "...a decent hitter with good speed...it's time for him to take Triple-A by storm and start that major league career sooner rather than later"
Rajai Davis: "Chris Duffy Lite"
Yurendell DeCaster: "his PECOTA comparables (Casey Blake, Robb Quinlan) suggest there could be some corner utility work in his future, but he'll have to catch a few breaks to get even that far."
Brad Eldred: "...just young enough that there's time to recover and forge a short big league career, but anyone with his weak sense of the strike zone is more likely to break hearts than deliver souvenirs as regularly as his power might seem to promise."
Jody Gerut: "...with Nady's issues against right-handed pitching, he just might get his career back on track."
Andrew McCutchen: "...the real thing: a five tool player with no weaknesses."
Nate McClouth: "FOGy - Fourth Outfielder Guy...isn't quite as good as Duffy"
Steven Pearce: "...hit just enough to stay in the periphery of the organizational plan...given his age, rate of progress and accomplishment, and how hard it is to make it as a major-league first baseman, this liting may be just a courtesy"
Neil Walker: "didn't hit well in teh Arizona Fall League, which is like being on the faculty at Bordello University and not scoring with a co-ed."
Jose Bautista: "A hallmark of bad teams is that they take perfect complementary players for contenders and stretch them into starting roles. Here's Exhibit A"
McCutchen and a whole bunch of stiffs. What a surprise. But how about the rotation, right? Right?
Zach Duke"...the NL's highest BABIP (.336) [one of] three qualifying starters among the ten worst BABIP in the league...a consequence of the Pirates' last-in-the-majors defensive efficiency rating...compounded by his declining strikeout rate, which dropped to dangerous levels"
So BP is projecting that Duke himself will have a better year (WHIP, ERA, K/9, K:BB all improved at least a bit) but for his record to not be any better. Interesting.
Tom GorzelannyNot much to quote for Gorzo, mentions his injury, and how his .264 BABIP will probably rise this year. I wouldn't argue, except to say that it won't rise
much. According to Cory, Gorzo is more of a strikeout pitcher than his '06 numbers show (9.18 K/9 in the minors from '04-'06), and he keeps the ball on the ground, so give him some D and he'll give you a shot. Liking where Gorzo is headed.
Paul Maholm"...a pitch-to-contact, ground-ball lefty." Then they ramble about his PECOTA changing rather unfavorably, but whatever. If Maholm can rein in his walks, it will make a world of difference, and perhaps his good second half can become the rule, not the exception.
Ian Snellnot much to mention here, except that he owned righties and lefties owned him. Prediction of more of the same this season for Snell, which I wouldn't be particularly disappointed in.
i'm not even going to discuss the mediocre amalgamation that is our fifth starter.
So, judging by those pessimistic bastards at Baseball Prospectus, our pitching will take another step forward this season, but it won't make a big difference in the standings, because the offense and defense won't follow. Darn, and I thought I might have a reason to smile today.
