Duff Beer

It appears Jason Bay has sparked the next version of the great debate among those in Pirate Nation...

Bay stated - rather accurately, everyone agrees - that you can hem and haw about what will and won't happen with the Pirates lineup this season, but in truth it all begins and ends with the leadoff spot.

Enter Chris Duffy.

Chris is suddenly a very discussed man, now that the Pirates' possession of a genuinely formidable 3-4-5 lineup combination (my aforementioned Fred, Dave, and Jay-Ray). Exactly how much Chris will be on base for these gentlemen to bring home, and therefore how useful he will be, is a topic with a variety of opinions. Here are the avenues, drive down them at your own risk (note: Duffy's defense is widely considered to be above average at worst, so we'll leave that half of the discussion at home):

Avenue A: Duffy = MiLB Averages

This theory has Duffy as a .300 hitter with a roughly .800 OPS, but who doesn't work particularly well as a leadoff hitter, because most of his high OBP is tied up in that high average - he doesn't have the requisite plate discipline (walks, etc) to be a true leadoff. At the same time, I can't help but think: I may be crazy, but is it not true that a .375 OBP is above average, regardless of exactly what the OBP is composed of?


Avenue B: Duffy = MLB Averages

This thought train would place Duffy as a .280 hitter with a roughly .700 OPS, and who again has a lot of OBP points tied up in that average. However, I think this stat line is a bit less reliable, what with Duffy still just shy of a full season worth of AB's at the major league level, as opposed to the 2000+ AB's from the previous example. Even at that, Duffy would probably, in conjunction with his defense, rate as a slightly above average CF at the major league level. This theory is less optimistic, but certainly not enough to rain on Duffy's parade.


Avenue C: Duffy = MLB Highs

Duffy's major league numbers equal a bit more than 3/4 of a season, and those numbers can be split up into almost even thirds. In part one of three, Duffy's initial cup of MLB-sized coffee, Duffy didn't do a ton other than hit, but he did well at that (.341 AVG, ,385 OBP in 39 games). In part three of three, the second half of last season, Duffy wasn't quite that good, although he still put up respectable numbers (.282, .345 plus 23 SB in 53 games). Mush these Duffys together and you get a line that looks something like: .304 AVG, .369 OBP, .389 SLG, .758 OPS. Hmm, that looks a lot like Duffy's minor league averages, but without the extra base hits. Though this presents well as lead-off, since he gets on plenty and doesn't have the extra base power of a lower order hitter.

Avenue D: Duffy = MLB Lows

This is where part two of three comes in. Duffy, by all accounts, wasn't all there for the beginning of the 2006 season, to the tune of .194/.255/.530. This, of course, projects as a player who doesn't deserve a place on a major league roster no matter how good his defense is. However, I think it is safe - considering the small sample size and extreme outlier nature of these numbers compared to the rest of his stats - to qualify these numbers as an anomaly that we probably won't see again over any extended period.

So all in all, what do we have here?It would appear that, for the most part, we have a very good, but not elite, defensive center fielder, who is at least good (if not above average) at getting on base, even though he struggles to get on base in ways other than getting hits.

Most folks would probably say that his lack of walks point to a lack of plate discipline that is highly desirable in a prototypical leadoff hitter. But again, I bring up my point that if youhave a player who can get on base upwards of 35% of the time, why does it matter exactly how he does it? Those who pooh-pooh him as leadoff fail to remember that, due to having established players in the middle of the lineup (sanchez, bay, laroche, paulino), not putting duffy in the leadoff means shoving him to 7th or 8th in the order. That can be seen as nothing other than an equally bad idea, since his 23SB in 53 games after the all-star break showed that Duffy has base-stealing speed and ability that would be wasted in a spot that low.

So what does all this mean for 2007? Here's an interesting comparison.

AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI

2121 376 639 105 30 29 209
1844 311 546 93 30 28 160

SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS

146 44 169 359 .301 .372 .420 .792

118 47 186 239 .296 .372 .425 .797

Well golly gee, them lines sure do look similar, don't they? The red line is Chris Duffy's career minor league line, and the green is the career minor league line of Houston's Chris Burke. Based on the six year sample size, I don't think it very unreasonable to call Duffy and Burke reasonably similar players (Burke being a right-handed Duffy with a little better plate discipline and a bit less speed).

Burke, like Duffy, is opening the season playing center field and hitting leadoff for Houston. Granted, the two don't compare defensively - Duffy is a natural center fielder, Burke is in center field because Wily Taveras got traded and Craig Biggio refuses to die. However they seem reasonably similar on offense.

They may be even more similar, since a bit of that discipline (in the form of K:BB ratio) Burke displayed in the minors went away, and he wound up posting a .276/.347/.765 line in his second significant stint, along with 9 HR and 40 RBI (366 AB's). I feel safe in saying that a line similar to that over a full season is probably a worst case scenario for Duffy.

But there's a bigger issue here, where the heck does Duffy hit? He can't be placed in the 3-4-5-6 area because he doesn't have the power or complete package to fit right...he can't hit 7-8 because placing a player who averaged 40 SB per season in his minor league career in front of the pitcher is an incredible waste...

That only leaves two places. Either A) you hit Duffy first or second (as the Pirates have every intention of doing), or B) you do that this season to build his rep, then trade him to an American League team that can hit Duffy at the bottom of the order without wasting his speed.

Whew. So there you have it. Chris Duffy is in the wrong league. Who knew?

Fan Logic

O.K.....follow me on this logic chain:

Adam Laroche
>
Laroche College
>
"college"
>
"college" t-shirt, made famous by John Belushi in Animal House
>
John Belushi's character, "Blutarsky"
>
Adam "Blutarsky" Laroche, and/or game-time chants of "Toga! Toga! Toga!"

it may not be perfectly logical, or direct, but at least it would be original and fun, right?

O.K., Semi-Hiatus

What, there's finally something interesting to put here.

Was reading an MLB article on Yahoo! that threw out three very interesting tidbits...

#1 "Pirates G.M. Dave Littlefield completed a quest of sorts when he acquired 1B Adam LaRoche from the Braves. Back in 1999, when Littlefield was an assistant G.M. with the Marlins, Florida drafted LaRoche out of a community college in the 42nd round but failed to sign him. The Braves grabbed him in the 29th round in 2000. " I knew that LaRoche had been drafted several times: perhaps this reveals DL's true motivation, above all else? Maybe.

#2 A little insight into our new buddy Adam LaRoche College: "Hitting isn't LaRoche's only strength; he also figures to improve the Pirates' defense. 'Having him at first is like having another shortstop on the field,' a rival scout says. 'He's a really slick, comfortable, fundamentally sound defender. He's agile and mobile. That's a big upgrade for Pittsburgh.'" I think that is easily the most glowing defensive review for LaRoche that I have seen. I will wait to see it with mine own two eyeballs, though.

#3 The Devil Rays are shopping bot B.J. Upton and Delmon Young, and not a single team has come forward with a serious offer. The article mentions several execs being turned off to Upton by an incident in Durham last year where he refused to collect balls after BP one day. Delmon Young is, of course, an ump-beater. Seriously, though, noone wants to make an offer for him?

#4 The Toronto Blue Jays are apparently mulling over trading CF Alex Rios and/or LF Reed Johnson, since both players are far apart on arbitration (3.1 mil to 2.0 for Rios, 3.6 to 2.5 for Johnson). The one that wins in arbitration is said to be destined for trade bait status - Toronto of course wants pitching in return.

Nutting New

This was too weird to not post. Anyone else get emailed this from pirates.com?

PITTSBURGH PIRATES NEWS WE WILL.
=======================================================================
January 12, 2007
FROM THE DESK OF ROBERT NUTTING, CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD
Dear Pirates Fans:

Today, Kevin McClatchy and I announced that we have mutually requested Major League Baseball approve a change of control within the ownership group of the Pirates from Kevin to myself. This change will provide absolute clarity regarding the ownership structure of the team.
As Chairman and control person for the organization, my role is to provide strategic leadership to the organization. As CEO, Kevin remains responsible for the day-to-day operations of the ballclub.

I understand how important the Pirates are to you, the fans, and this community. Like you, I believe there is absolutely nothing more important than for our team to be able to win, not just for one year, but on a consistent basis. I am committed to providing Kevin
and General Manager Dave Littlefield the greatest amount of support possible to accomplish that. Our fans deserve it, our community deserves it and I expect it.

In order to consistently succeed on the field, it's critical that we spend our resources effectively, while continuing to build our team from within. This is the plan I firmly believe in. It is one that Dave was brought here to develop and execute, one that he and Kevin are accountable for and one that I have confidence is working.

I am energized about our core group of exciting, young, talented players. We have one of the youngest teams in all of baseball and now will be able to keep them together for several years. Coming off last season's second half success, I am confident that this team, under the leadership of Jim Tracy, will continue to improve. I very much look forward to the 2007 season.

I am very proud to be the Chairman of this historic franchise and want you to be just as proud to be one of our fans. Thank you for your continued support of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
I hope to see you at PNC Park this season, and for many more seasons to come.

Sincerely,
Robert Nutting
Chairman of the Board
Pittsburgh Pirates


bear with me while i get my bearings enough to bother picking this turd apart.

Enufzenuf

O.K. I am fairly certain that between New Pirates Generation, Bucco Blog, Bucs Dugout, WHYGAVS, Honest Wagner, and the scads of others, there seems to be a saturation point that has been reached with Pirate blogs. Between that and the fact that it is now officially downseason, "82" is officially going on hiatus until either Valenties Day or when pitchers and catchers report, whichever day I like better.

Granted, this is also in an effort to focus more on other ventures, namely the National Sports Review and my contributions to Pensblog, but still, see y'all in February. Or March. Or whenever.

Brian Lawrence

New Pirate rumor: Pirates interested in signing Brian Lawrence. Lawrence had surgery to repair multiple partial tears in his rotator cuff and labrum. A decent bit of surgery, but nothing unusual.

On one hand, this seems like a decent signing. Lawrence has put up solid, innings eater type numbers for most of his career with San Diego, which is just the kind of pitcher the Pirates could use. He also, due to the spook of surgery (and only being pursued by NL West teams not named LA or SF) could come noticeably cheaper than the equivalent Tomo Ohka (now being chased by the Mets).

Then I started researching, and the more I looked, the less I like this idea. Sure, it would be very reasonable to project Lawrence as a 10-15 win, 200 inning, 4.50 ERA type pitcher. Hooray. Except it typically takes a pitcher a full season to get back into form, so we could reasonably expect numbers worse than that, at least this season. On top of that, Lawrence's numbers against the NLCD are worse than his career averages*.

In 37 career starts against the NLCD, Lawrence is 10-22 with a 4.69 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP and 27 HR.
In 19 starts in NLCD parks, he is 5-13 with a 5.70 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP and 18HR.

Those don't strike me as great numbers, though I give him slight reprieve for a 2.5:1 K/BB ratio.

I dunno, maybe he'll be a very respectable pitcher. I just don't see it happening in 2007 - probably in 20008, by which time we will have traded him.
* For simplicity's sake, I am ignoring his two 1 inning relief appearances against the Pirates and Reds.

"Dice"

Yes. Dice. Andrew Dice CLay? No, silly, Daisuke Matsuzaka. This is a baseball blog, remember?

Much has been made about how the large sum of money the Red Sox forked over for Dice ($103 million total) will be worth the investment if he can be a solid and consistent #1 or #2 starter. It is never mentioned, though, that this move has had an even further reaching, twofold effect on their hated rivals, the Yankees.

Yankee fans en masse were pencilling Matsuzaka into their 2007 rotations since the end of the World Baseball Classic. Certainly it stings to get outbid by your main rival for a potential stud. The Red Sox secretly got a second victory form this. Perhaps in part due to the unrest in Yankee Nation over missing on Daisuke, the Yankees went out and paid roughly $40 million in negotiation fees and salary for pitcher Kei Igawa. Igawa is being compared, on a regular basis, to Tomo Ohka. I don't think I need to explain further.

So the Red Sox not only outbid the Yankees for a top-of-the-rotation starter, but they simultaneously paniced the Yanks into grossly overpaying for a back end starter. That has to feel pretty good for Theo, even if he has continuied to ruin the spirit of Red Sox Nation to do it.

Down Time Discussion

OR "How Dave Littlefield is only the 6th Worst GM in Baseball"

Well, OK, I'm only specifically referring to this offseason, but it's a start, right? Let's take a look at the things Dave hasn't done this offseason:

• Mortgage the Future - this is what happens when you sign any massive contract. Sure, you may be guaranteeing that a marquee talent stays on your roster in his prime, but you also are guaranteeing that you have zero flexibility during any point in the coming years. Example #1, Alfonso Soriano. Eight years, $136 million. This contract ensures that, for at least the next couple seasons, the Cubs have at least one legitimate 40-40 guy on tehir roster. Therin lies the upside of the signing. Unfortunately, there are multiple downsides. He will be 31 going into the '07 season, so he is presumably at least beginning his decline; the thing the Cubs suck most at is getting players on base, and Soriano is better at driving runners in than anything else; and of course, he is signed for eight years - there is no way he is productive for all eight, so the Cubs will be stuck with an overpaid player for at least a few years in the future. Dave has done no such thing (mostly - and justifiably - thanks to one Derek Bell, I'm sure). I also have to lump Toronto's J.P. Ricciardi into this mortgage-the-future-to-win-now cast.
• Redundancy Department of Redundancy - He has not engaged himself in a situation where he has signed players that he already has on the roster. Huh? Several cases in point here. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County GM Bill Stoneman went out and signed Shea Hillenbrand. Hillenbrand is a right-handed 1B-only guy who hits for average and that's it. Anaheim already has a bunch of guys who hit for average and nothing else, and two other 1B prospects who are MLB ready now. Baltimore is another example. They gave Aubrey Huff the 7.5 million per year he was looking for. Huff is an aging, stop-gap utility player with respectable power and average, who is most useful at 1B but will probably wind up in the outfield. Except they already have Jay Gibbons, who has the exact same skill set. Yet another example is the other Los Angeles, the Dodgers. I understand the desire to "win now" and have "proven talent" on your roster. They went out and gave a hefty chunk of money to bring in Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez, and to resign Nomar Garciaparra. Just a few problems with this concept. Gonzalez is 39 and a 20-80-.280 guy at best. Garciaparra is 33, but still capable of about that same line. Juan Pierre is 29 and capable of .350+ OBP and 40+ SB, but certainly not worth $44 million. Beyond that, however, is a bigger problem. Why would you spend all that money on those three players when you already have Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and James Loney, who are 24, 22, and 22 respectively and all capable of the same production? That is income that is much better invested somewhere else. Granted, similar moves by DL have probably been avoided due to the Burnnitz/Randa/Casey fiasco of last season, but at least he's avoiding them now.
• General Stupidity - which is about all we can use to describe Bill Bavasi, the GM in Seattle. He traded away Rafael Soriano, his best young reliever and best overall pitching prospect not named King Felix. What did he get in return? Future Hall-of-Shamer Horacio Ramirez, who in four big-league seasons has averaged 8 wins, 130 IP, a 1:1 K/BB ratio, and a DL stint every other season. And he's now they're #3 starter. Then Bavasi went out and gave away two more prospects for Jose Vidro. Vidro is 33 years old and will either a) take away playing time from up-and-comer Jose Lopez at 2B or b) compete with Jose Guillen and Ben Broussard for time at DH. Neither of those situations will end well.

See? All those GM's making moves that are anything from desperate to unnecessary to downright stupid, and we didn't have to say Dave's name once. But there's more to it than that: some of these moves actually help Dave Littlefield if he is smart enough to capitalize.

#1 Bill Stoneman signing Hillenbrand means that Casey Kotchman is now third on the Angels depth chart at 1B behind Kendry Morales. Everyone is down on him, but cut him a break, he had mono fer chrissakes. Ripe for the picking.

#2 Noone is discussing this, but there's a chance that since Bavasi signed Vidro, he would part with Lopez. He is a good defensive 2B, and a good offensive 2B who is still growing. Seattle desperately needs pitching. They have a solid ace (Hernandez) a solid closer (Putz) and that's really it. Just a thought

#3 The Cubs signing Alfonso Soriano means that Matt Murton (.297 avg, .809 OPS, 13 HR, 62 RBI) will now be sharing time with Daryle Ward as 4th OF. He can't be too happy with that. The Cubs ned pitching, and what do we have? Pitching!

Just some ideas.