More *$@#$ Ponderings

Hard to fit it all in one post when you only have the computer one day a week.

Will Freddy Sanchez return to form last year? Probably not. Props to Rocco from the post-game show, but here's why...

~Since 1960, batting champions have had an average drop of 37 points in their batting average the year after they won the title. This would mean a .307 average for Freddy, which is still very decent and about what he seems on pace for anyways.

~BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is a nice little indicator. This is a measure of the percentage of balls put in play that become hits for a batter. The league average is between .300 and .310 depending on who you ask, and you can see if a hitters average was way above it (unlucky) or way above it (lucky) to tell where their average might go in the future. In 2005, Sanchez's BABIP was .308, right about league average. In 2006, Freddy's BABIP was .370. It is accepted that winning a batting title involves some luck, but that is a LOT of luck. This year Freddy's BABIP is again a more normal .306. That doesn't mean that Freddy is on pace to match his current .258 average, that will continue to climb, but I don't think the preseason projections of .310 will be very far off.

~Paul Zeise, 99 times out of 100, is a douchebag who knows nothing about anything other than college football and basketball. However, he made a very interesting point Sunday night. He said that the Yankees have been derided a bit for using so many starting pitchers, shuttling players back and forth from AAA and AA - players who obviously weren't ready based on the results. However, no matter the results, it does mean one thing - the Yankees are doing everything they can think of to try to win. They are trying everyone out to see who can get them a win. The Pirates have no such interest, or they wouldn't be leaving two starters at AAA with ERA's under 2.00

~The local media is making a big poof about this "Pirates have only scored in four of their last 45 innings" or whatever stat like that they want to throw up. It looks all fancy, but there's more to it than that. The Pirates have three pitchers (Snell, Gorzo, and Duke) who, more often than not, are going to give you a quality start, which means you'll only need about four runs to win. It doesn't particularly matter whether that comes as one run in each of the four innings, or four runs in the ninth, or however. My point is, the offense only needs to get a little better, not a lot better.

~On the bright side, the teamis 11-4 when they get a quality start. That stat would be 15-0 for a good team, but at least they're wasting good startsless frequently than in the past.