Wednesday, January 3, 2007

Down Time Discussion

OR "How Dave Littlefield is only the 6th Worst GM in Baseball"
Well, OK, I'm only specifically referring to this offseason, but it's a start, right? Let's take a look at the things Dave hasn't done this offseason:
  • Mortgage the Future - this is what happens when you sign any massive contract. Sure, you may be guaranteeing that a marquee talent stays on your roster in his prime, but you also are guaranteeing that you have zero flexibility during any point in the coming years. Example #1, Alfonso Soriano. Eight years, $136 million. This contract ensures that, for at least the next couple seasons, the Cubs have at least one legitimate 40-40 guy on tehir roster. Therin lies the upside of the signing. Unfortunately, there are multiple downsides. He will be 31 going into the '07 season, so he is presumably at least beginning his decline; the thing the Cubs suck most at is getting players on base, and Soriano is better at driving runners in than anything else; and of course, he is signed for eight years - there is no way he is productive for all eight, so the Cubs will be stuck with an overpaid player for at least a few years in the future. Dave has done no such thing (mostly - and justifiably - thanks to one Derek Bell, I'm sure). I also have to lump Toronto's J.P. Ricciardi into this mortgage-the-future-to-win-now cast.
  • Redundancy Department of Redundancy - He has not engaged himself in a situation where he has signed players that he already has on the roster. Huh? Several cases in point here. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County GM Bill Stoneman went out and signed Shea Hillenbrand. Hillenbrand is a right-handed 1B-only guy who hits for average and that's it. Anaheim already has a bunch of guys who hit for average and nothing else, and two other 1B prospects who are MLB ready now. Baltimore is another example. They gave Aubrey Huff the 7.5 million per year he was looking for. Huff is an aging, stop-gap utility player with respectable power and average, who is most useful at 1B but will probably wind up in the outfield. Except they already have Jay Gibbons, who has the exact same skill set. Yet another example is the other Los Angeles, the Dodgers. I understand the desire to "win now" and have "proven talent" on your roster. They went out and gave a hefty chunk of money to bring in Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez, and to resign Nomar Garciaparra. Just a few problems with this concept. Gonzalez is 39 and a 20-80-.280 guy at best. Garciaparra is 33, but still capable of about that same line. Juan Pierre is 29 and capable of .350+ OBP and 40+ SB, but certainly not worth $44 million. Beyond that, however, is a bigger problem. Why would you spend all that money on those three players when you already have Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and James Loney, who are 24, 22, and 22 respectively and all capable of the same production? That is income that is much better invested somewhere else. Granted, similar moves by DL have probably been avoided due to the Burnnitz/Randa/Casey fiasco of last season, but at least he's avoiding them now.
  • General Stupidity - which is about all we can use to describe Bill Bavasi, the GM in Seattle. He traded away Rafael Soriano, his best young reliever and best overall pitching prospect not named King Felix. What did he get in return? Future Hall-of-Shamer Horacio Ramirez, who in four big-league seasons has averaged 8 wins, 130 IP, a 1:1 K/BB ratio, and a DL stint every other season. And he's now they're #3 starter. Then Bavasi went out and gave away two more prospects for Jose Vidro. Vidro is 33 years old and will either a) take away playing time from up-and-comer Jose Lopez at 2B or b) compete with Jose Guillen and Ben Broussard for time at DH. Neither of those situations will end well.

See? All those GM's making moves that are anything from desperate to unnecessary to downright stupid, and we didn't have to say Dave's name once. But there's more to it than that: some of these moves actually help Dave Littlefield if he is smart enough to capitalize.

#1 Bill Stoneman signing Hillenbrand means that Casey Kotchman is now third on the Angels depth chart at 1B behind Kendry Morales. Everyone is down on him, but cut him a break, he had mono fer chrissakes. Ripe for the picking.

#2 Noone is discussing this, but there's a chance that since Bavasi signed Vidro, he would part with Lopez. He is a good defensive 2B, and a good offensive 2B who is still growing. Seattle desperately needs pitching. They have a solid ace (Hernandez) a solid closer (Putz) and that's really it. Just a thought

#3 The Cubs signing Alfonso Soriano means that Matt Murton (.297 avg, .809 OPS, 13 HR, 62 RBI) will now be sharing time with Daryle Ward as 4th OF. He can't be too happy with that. The Cubs ned pitching, and what do we have? Pitching!

Just some ideas.

2 comments:

Cory said...

Bavasi won't give up Lopez. 0% chance. Vidro has all but said that he's not capable of playing regularly in the field anymore after injuries and general wear and tear have taken their toll. He'll be a DH, nothing more.

Lopez, on the other hand, has the potential to be a stud. Bavasi is an idiot, but no GM in baseball is that foolish. It'd take a helluva package to Lopez away from Seattle.

--Cory

Geeves said...

i know it's a pipe dream, but if he's dumb enough to give up soriano straight up for a no-name retread, who knows what he is capable of.

the other two ideas are far more realistic, and Murton really intrigues me.