Saturday, June 2, 2007

Da Fyoo-Chah II OR Why the Pirates Need to Make Nice With the Devil Rays

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays have done a great job, much like the Braves always have, and the Brewers, Dodgers, and Angels recently have, of replenishing and producing from within their own farm system. Although, they may have done too good a job, judging by the lopsidedness of what they have currently...

Starting Rotation

The Rays already have Scott Kazmir and James Shields pitching every five days. Both are young (23 and 25 respectively), probably in the top 15 or 20 pitchers in the AL, and getting better.

They just made the move yesterday to call up Andy Sonnanstine and J.P. Howell from AAA Durham yesterday, which will make the rotation even better if these two can perform as they have been.
Sonnanstine is a flamethrower who may be hit or miss (8 HR in 11 starts) but is mostly miss (6 1/3 IP/S, 1.03 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 5:1 ratio).
J.P. Howell came over to the team from Kansas City when they got rid of Joey Gathright, and had minimal success in a couple spot appearances with the Royals. He has been about equal to Sonnanstine in Durham, however, posting a very similar line (5.8 IP/S, 1.26 WHIP, 9.06 K/9, 3.6:1 ratio).
The, umm, lesser pitchers at Durham start with Jason Hammel. Hammel has been equally untouchable in his first two months with the Bulls, posting another impressive line (6 IP/S, 1.04 WHIP, 8.96 K/, 3:1 ratio). Hammel is followed by the runt of the group, Jeff Niemann.
Niemann, the back end guy, has only managed 5 2/3 IP/s, a 1.38 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, and a 2.8 :1 ratio. How pedestrian.
Oooh, and let us not forget lil' Chris Mason, down in AA with the...*ahem* Montgomery Biscuits. He's managed a meager 1.11 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 4.2:1 ratio.

Now, I realize that's a whole bunch of numbers, and that there's a difference between AA and AAA, and another difference between AAA and MLB. That being said, I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest that all five of these guys (none of whom are older than 24, by the way) have at least a 50/50 chance of making the rotation out of spring training next season and being at least a solid mid-rotation guy for the forseeable future.

I repeat, that's seven guys for five spots. You do the math.

Starting Lineup

The Rays already have quite the lineup of the future - a second baseman (BJ Upton) and center fielder (Crawford) who are pretty much here to stay. Then they have Jonny Gomes, Elijah Dukes, and Delmon Young in the outfield. Gomes is the only one with any amount of success at the major league level, but all of them fall into "hit too well in the minors to justify more time there" territory. They also have Justin Ruggiano down in AAA, who isn't obliterating the ball, but a .295 average, .865 OPS, and 7 HR through 43 games is nothing to scoff at. None of the players I just mentioned is older than 25.

Oh wait, they also have Rocco Baldelli, a speedy outfielder with genuine 20-20 potential who has struggled with injury recently but is still only 25. They also have Jorge Cantu, 2B turned 1B (see: Upton) who also has struggled, but is only 25 and less than two years removed from .286/28/117. They Devil Rays have Akinori Iwamura, the Japanese import who hasn't played a ton due to minor injury, but has hit well and may wind up with numbers like Cantu's by years' end.

Lest we forget the guy Iwamura is blocking, Evan Longoria, who was just drafted last summer, and is already hitting well enough that at his current pace, he may win the starting job next spring. Or Jon Jaso, the catcher with minimal pop, but sweet swing, who is a defensive improvement away from AAA himself.

You see where I'm going with all this? The Devil Rays have five rotation spots and eight positions in the field, plus a DH spot. That's as many as seven pitchers competing for five rotation spots, and as many as eleven hitters competing for nine lineup spots - within the next two years!

If that isn't talent out the wazoo, I don't know what is. It is certainly more talent than they have room for, unless they luck into a few players who play their way onto the bench.

One thing Tampa doesn't have, however, is relievers. Al Reyes is the only Tampa reliever with an ERA under 4, and he's 37. The next best relevier is Juan Salas, pitching his first full season above AAA at age 28. The next best option is Jae Kuk Ryu, but Tampa acquired him from Chicago to be a starter, and he's been sent down to Durham to work on exactly that.

The Rays have exactly four relievers who are a) above A+, b) young enough to still be a prospect, and c) pitching well enough to warrant a promotion.

The Pirates....the one thing they DO have is more relief pitching prospects (of varying quality) than they reasonably know what to do with/have room for.


I see happy marriage! I hope?

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