Saturday, July 7, 2007

I'm here to argue. Most will not see this, since I am not a regular blogger (due to limited internet access) like Pat, Andrew, Charlie, or Cory, but that's alright, I'll just ramble anyways.

Most folks seem to be in agreement that, while imperfect (since judging someone by one criteria generally is), OPS is as good a tool as any when attempting to judge a hitter's abilities and status as a prospect.

If you take a look at the International League stats, you can see that Pirate SS Brian Bixler is currently 15th in OPS in the league. Not too shabby. That improves to 7th if you remove all the players who are old enough to be borderline prospects/bench players at best (aka players who are at least as old as me).

Of the six players listed above Bixler, half of them have already been promoted to the big leagues, and two of them [Josh Fields (3B, CHA) and Ben Fransisco (OF, CLE)] are not coming back. Another, Cincinnati Reds 1B Joey Votto, is soon to follow if the Reds do as they should and begin prepping for next season.

The other guys are, like Bixler, blocked by someone at their current position on the big league club: all three are outfielders who are stuck behind the likes of Manny Ramirez, Magglio Ordonez, and Carl Crawford among others.

Bixler? He's stuck behind the world-reknowned Jack Wilson. Jacko is on fire. He is hitting .290 with a .759 OPS since Memorial day. Unfortunately, Jack was so atrocious at the plate for the first two months that this streak has only brought him up to a .262 average and .685 OPS for the season. No, it wasn't even a bad two months, because Wilson was hitting .288 with a .723 OPS as of the Pirates' first off day in May (the 7th). Wilson then hit an 11-65 skid where the only bright spot was a 3-3 night against Atlanta. Outside of that slump, he's been a .289 hitter this season.

I'll forgive Jack a slump, and I perhaps have been overly harsh towards him, but even at his best, he's a Brian Bixler clone who is five years older and about five million dollars more expensive. Call me crazy for wanting the Pirates to shop him like mad and give the SS job to Bixler as of August 1st.

There's more dragging of the feet by the Pirates beyond Bixler, I'm afraid. Here are two lines for you:


Team Lge AVG G HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS
LOU INT .315 83 11 50 50 66 .412 .482 .894
ALT EAS .330 63 11 51 25 36 .397 .588 .985

The second line is, obviously, what Steven Pearce has done since being promoted to Altoona. The line above him is the one posted at AAA Louisville by the aforementioned Votto. The only other difference between the two is that Pearce is 24 this season, and Votto will be 24 at the end of the season. If Votto's numbers are good enough for him to be surrounded by "when will he arrive in Cincinnati" buzz, why isn't a more impressive line by Pearce grounds for a promotion to Indianapolis.

Alright, maybe it's "only" equally impressive, considering the difference in levels, but still...

I think Neil Walker has a similar beef. He isn't quite hitting like Pearce (who is top 5 in avg, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, and RBI, by the way), but he is definitely one of the ten best hitters in the league right now (again, adjusting for all the older, filler guys).

On the one hand, I look and see "by god, he's committed 19 errors in 82 games at third base" which leads me to think "no wonder he hasn't been promoted.

On the other hand, look at B.J. Upton. He committed scads of errors (50+ in both of his full minor league seasons) but kept getting promoted because he was hitting like crazy. He is now in the big leagues full-time, and he has 13 errors in 50 games as a 3B last year, moved to 2B, and had 12 errors in 48 games when he hit the DL.

Tampa Bay figured out that his bat was too valuable to let it get stale while he figured out the defense, can't the Pirates do the same?

Maybe the CEO change will bring about fresh air, and perspective, but one can't assume too much.

Saturday, June 9, 2007

Big Apple...in our throats

We'll come home from New York tomorrow and get an off day to try and swallow that large fruit before we choke to death on it. The Bucs will then venture into a six game series against the Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox. If the Pirates can't manage to go at least .500 in those six games, it will prove...well, it will prove that they suck, which we already know. Seriously though, if you can't beat Texas, who can you beat? A look at the upcoming homestand, for those masochists out there:

Texas at a glance:

This team is truly inept. Every starter in the rotation has an ERA over 6.00 and a WHIP of at least 1.55. That's a lot of legs running the bases. Texas pitchers have given up at least five runs in 40 games this season, including 14 of the last 16. Snell and Gorzelanny will pitch games two and three, and they have more quality starts this season than the entire Texas team.

As far as hitting goes, they have Mark Teixeira, Sammy Sosa...and their third best hitter is either Gerald Laird or Ian Kinsler, who hit nine home runs in the first three weeks of the season and is hitting .200 since. Sosa, Teixeira, and Laird are also the only three players hitting well (.750 OPS and .270 AVG or better) on the road.

The Rangers played our mirror image, Houston, in the first round of interleague play, and won two of three, though Brandon McCarthy pitched (who we wont see) and a pre-implosion Robinson Tejada pitched as well (I'll explain that later). This is exactly the kind of series where we could win all three 30-3, lose all three 30-3, or anything in between.

Tuesday: Zach Duke vs. Kevin Millwood

Duke has been pretty damn awful this season, and his numbers are still better than at least 2/5ths of the Texas rotation. Millwood started the season...in rather mediocre fashion (5.88 ERA, 1.73WHIP, 26:15 K/BB in 33.2 IP) before going on the DL at the end of April. He came back in mid-May and got tagged for two innings before going back on the DL. In two starts since returning, Millwood has been even worse (8.2IP, 19H, 14R, 11ER, 3HR, 4BB, 7K).

Wednesday: Ian Snell vs. Kameron Loe

I really don't need to go on about Snell. He's been pretty effing good all year. Kameron with a K has been the Anti-Snell. He was moved to the from the bullpen to the rotation three weeks into the season and has been bad across the board (53.2IP, 72H, 50R, 46ER, 8HR, 18BB, 30K, 7.72 ERA, 1.68 WHIP). There's really no details to give - he isn't fooling anybody.

Thursday: Tom Gorzelanny vs. Robinson Tejada
Gorzelanny has probably been left in too long in his last two starts, laboring in the 7th inning (mostly due to also laboring in the first inning). In spite of that, his numbers are still top notch, and against a relatively thin lineup like this one, he should be able to succeed. Tejada has been a very strange case. Observe this split of his performance:

1st 6 starts: 3-2, 3.89 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7HR, 27K, 10BB in 37 innings
2nd 6 starts: 2-4, 9.99 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 6HR, 21K, 20BB in 27 innings

Is this the league catching up with him? It certainly would seem that way. Further evidence to support that claim: he has faced two teams twice this season, the Yankees and Athletics. He has done as follows:

1st outings: 12.2 IP, 15H, 6R, 6ER, 2HR, 1BB, 12K
2nd outings: 6.2 IP, 10H, 11R, 11ER, 2HR, 7BB, 1K

Looks like he fools hitters at first, but not for long.

On the other hand, Millwood still strikes batters out,and any pitcher who can fool hitters at all usually has some success against us. So who knows?


Chicago at a glance:

The White Sox aren't very different than us, either. The Sox were 24-20 when they had a game rained out against Tampa on May 26th. Since then, they are 2-12 and have been outscored 86-37 in that span (1-7, 47-23 in their last eight). Chicago's worst starter has been John Danks, who has posted a 4.38 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and a 44:26 K/BB ratio in 61 innings.

So it must be Chicago's hitting that is crap, right? You guessed it. Jim Thome is the only regular starter with an OPS above .725, with an overall OPS above one, but only .837 in 18 games since coming off the DL.

The Sox have 10 players with at least 100 at-bats. Two of them, Darin Erstad and Joe Crede, are on the DL and will not play against the Pirates (though neither was doing particularly well anyways, posting OPS's of .652 and .576, respectively). Their replacements are Jerry Owens, Chicago's very own Chris Duffy, and Josh Fields, the stud 3B who was being blocked by Crede. Fields hit .283 with 10 HR, 37 RBI, and an .891 OPS in 56 games before being called up Thursday. We'll see how quickly he adjusts in the bigs.

The other eight? Tad Iguchi extended his hit streak to 10 games today and is hitting .381 in that span, and Thome now has a seven game streak where he is hitting .320. During that same 10 game span, Konerko is the only other starter hitting better than .250. Rob Mackowiak is their leadoff hitter, fer chrissakes.

Basically: Owens=Duffy, Uribe=Wilson, Konerko=LaRoche, Pierzynski=Paulino (with better D), Iguchi=Sanchez circa '06, Dye=Nady, Mackowiak=Bautista.

I'm not even going to bother with the pitching matchups. Barring significant change, it's Maholm, Chacon, and Duke against Jon Garland, Mark Buerhle, and Javier Vazquez. We could very easily win all three of these games, or lose all three and only get outscored 8-4.

Fearless prediction for the homestand? 1-5.

Sunday, June 3, 2007

Draft talk

Interesting article about the 2004 draft and how Brian Bixler and Neil Walker are the last remaining proscpects from that draft that are still worth talking about. Here's what I took from it....

From 2004's 30 first-rounders:

~Walker is one of 11 position players taken, and is the third best (based on progress through pro ball thusfar) behind only Arizona's Stephen Drew and KC's Billy Butler (both of whom the Bucs passed on).

~19 pitchers taken that round, six of whom are already starting at MLB level (including Jered Weaver, taken right after Walker), with two more on the way soon (Phil Humber and Homer Bailey)

So that's 11 out of 30 2004 first round picks who will be on a 25 man roster by Opening day 2008. Sounds about right.

The Pirates drafted 50 players that year (usual), signed half of them (27 - again, about average), and 13 of them are still in the organization. So the Pirates are as good at drafting players worth being in pro ball as the league is at producing first-round talent.

Hmm.

Bits and Pieces

Which is what the Bucs will probably be in when Brad Penny i through with them. SOme interesting notes....

~Survivor Kuwata finally started rolling yesterday with one shutout inning. More, err...MLB seasoned relievers Wayback and Kolb(asa) combined to give up five runs in four innings.

~The Pirates have signed Dewon Brazelton to a minor league contract and will start him at AA Altoona. This should be nothing if not interesting. Brazelton was the D-Rays' next big thing back when he was drafted in the first round (#3 overall) in 2001 - back before any of Tampa's current pitching stars were even out of high school.

He spent most of four years (02-05) bouncing between AA, AAA, and MLB, in spite of not exactly putting up promotion-worthy numbers at most of his stops. He also looks like someone who was rushed through the system. He made his MLB debut in September 2002, at age 23, after only five innings of experience above AA (and not exactly earth-shattering numbers at AA either).

Then in 2003, he made 10 starts and was pretty bad, so Tampa demoted him all the way to A ball and then told him "forget all the changes we made to your delivery. Our bad."

Brazelton improved enough that Tampa called him back up in June of 2004, and Brazelton went 6-8 in 21 starts, while managing a respectable 120 innings and 4.77 ERA - and a 64:53 strikeout to walk ratio. Yikes.

In spite of that, Dewon was Tampa's Opening Day starter in 2005 (mostly because he was actually the best pitcher they had at the time, not because he was doing anything incredible, obviously). He pitched...reasonably well, but not good enough for Tampa (who had Kazmir in the rotation by now) and was optioned to AAA Durham...but he never went. He pulled a Duffy and disappeared for three weeks. He then came back to AAA, then was recalled and finished the season in the bullpen, though he only pitched in 12 games over three months.

That offseason, he was dealt to Sand Diego. In '06, he made two starts, got shellacked, was moved to the buulpen, got hit hard a few more times, and then went off to Portland (AAA).

Perhaps there's a chance Brazelton is still salvageable. He's only 26, he's big (6'4", 215), he hasn't had any major injuries. Who knows?

Though I'm willing to bet we aren't the right team to salvage him.

~Gene Collier talks about Bill James' term "game altering lack of hustle" - Pirates response? not vebatim, but basically:

DL: "I bet that's skewed by false hustle, like running hard for a foul ball"
Tracy: "I bet that involve a bunch of addition, subtraction, and division."

Oy. Our fearless leaders, everyone.

Saturday, June 2, 2007

Da Fyoo-Chah II OR Why the Pirates Need to Make Nice With the Devil Rays

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays have done a great job, much like the Braves always have, and the Brewers, Dodgers, and Angels recently have, of replenishing and producing from within their own farm system. Although, they may have done too good a job, judging by the lopsidedness of what they have currently...

Starting Rotation

The Rays already have Scott Kazmir and James Shields pitching every five days. Both are young (23 and 25 respectively), probably in the top 15 or 20 pitchers in the AL, and getting better.

They just made the move yesterday to call up Andy Sonnanstine and J.P. Howell from AAA Durham yesterday, which will make the rotation even better if these two can perform as they have been.
Sonnanstine is a flamethrower who may be hit or miss (8 HR in 11 starts) but is mostly miss (6 1/3 IP/S, 1.03 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 5:1 ratio).
J.P. Howell came over to the team from Kansas City when they got rid of Joey Gathright, and had minimal success in a couple spot appearances with the Royals. He has been about equal to Sonnanstine in Durham, however, posting a very similar line (5.8 IP/S, 1.26 WHIP, 9.06 K/9, 3.6:1 ratio).
The, umm, lesser pitchers at Durham start with Jason Hammel. Hammel has been equally untouchable in his first two months with the Bulls, posting another impressive line (6 IP/S, 1.04 WHIP, 8.96 K/, 3:1 ratio). Hammel is followed by the runt of the group, Jeff Niemann.
Niemann, the back end guy, has only managed 5 2/3 IP/s, a 1.38 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, and a 2.8 :1 ratio. How pedestrian.
Oooh, and let us not forget lil' Chris Mason, down in AA with the...*ahem* Montgomery Biscuits. He's managed a meager 1.11 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 4.2:1 ratio.

Now, I realize that's a whole bunch of numbers, and that there's a difference between AA and AAA, and another difference between AAA and MLB. That being said, I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest that all five of these guys (none of whom are older than 24, by the way) have at least a 50/50 chance of making the rotation out of spring training next season and being at least a solid mid-rotation guy for the forseeable future.

I repeat, that's seven guys for five spots. You do the math.

Starting Lineup

The Rays already have quite the lineup of the future - a second baseman (BJ Upton) and center fielder (Crawford) who are pretty much here to stay. Then they have Jonny Gomes, Elijah Dukes, and Delmon Young in the outfield. Gomes is the only one with any amount of success at the major league level, but all of them fall into "hit too well in the minors to justify more time there" territory. They also have Justin Ruggiano down in AAA, who isn't obliterating the ball, but a .295 average, .865 OPS, and 7 HR through 43 games is nothing to scoff at. None of the players I just mentioned is older than 25.

Oh wait, they also have Rocco Baldelli, a speedy outfielder with genuine 20-20 potential who has struggled with injury recently but is still only 25. They also have Jorge Cantu, 2B turned 1B (see: Upton) who also has struggled, but is only 25 and less than two years removed from .286/28/117. They Devil Rays have Akinori Iwamura, the Japanese import who hasn't played a ton due to minor injury, but has hit well and may wind up with numbers like Cantu's by years' end.

Lest we forget the guy Iwamura is blocking, Evan Longoria, who was just drafted last summer, and is already hitting well enough that at his current pace, he may win the starting job next spring. Or Jon Jaso, the catcher with minimal pop, but sweet swing, who is a defensive improvement away from AAA himself.

You see where I'm going with all this? The Devil Rays have five rotation spots and eight positions in the field, plus a DH spot. That's as many as seven pitchers competing for five rotation spots, and as many as eleven hitters competing for nine lineup spots - within the next two years!

If that isn't talent out the wazoo, I don't know what is. It is certainly more talent than they have room for, unless they luck into a few players who play their way onto the bench.

One thing Tampa doesn't have, however, is relievers. Al Reyes is the only Tampa reliever with an ERA under 4, and he's 37. The next best relevier is Juan Salas, pitching his first full season above AAA at age 28. The next best option is Jae Kuk Ryu, but Tampa acquired him from Chicago to be a starter, and he's been sent down to Durham to work on exactly that.

The Rays have exactly four relievers who are a) above A+, b) young enough to still be a prospect, and c) pitching well enough to warrant a promotion.

The Pirates....the one thing they DO have is more relief pitching prospects (of varying quality) than they reasonably know what to do with/have room for.


I see happy marriage! I hope?

Da Fyoo-Chah OR How Jason Bay Is Secretly Kobe Bryant

DK's inquiry - about whether keeping the core intact or capitalizing on the weak division is more important - appears to have ignited the Plogosphere into a rash of posts. Allow me to join the fray, but I'd like to pull together a few slightly different ideas before I throw my own onto the bonfire.

Dejan put it quite well, I think, when he stated quite some time back that "if you continually plan for the future, the future never actually arrives."

I.e., if you're always looking to win later, you're less likely to win now, and if you aren't winning now, you aren't very likely to be winning later.

The best statement, however, came from Mr. Pat Lackey at WHYGAVS:

"Unless every single move is geared towards making the team better as soon as possible, none of the moves being made are anything but lateral." (emphasis mine)

This is plain, real life, provable fact. Even in the most basic sense; if you choose a goal, say a tree on the other end of the football field, and draw a straight line path to that tree, your goal is now following that line to that tree. Absolutely anything you do that is anything but taking a step along that line does nothing other than erode the progress you have made to that point. Same goes for the Pirates.

This is supported by Wilbur T. Miller on Honest Wagner, "[Littlefield]'s failures are perfect examples of what happens when you don't commit to a particular course of action. Instead, they've tried to have it both ways, pretending to build through the farm system without committing the resources needed to do so, and wasting money and playing time on mostly crappy veteran fill-ins without looking for longer term, higher upside solutions."

So what in the world does this have to do with Jason Bay comparing to Kobe Bryant? Well...

It has been discussed often over the past year or two that the Los Angeles Lakers - and head man Mitch Kupchak - are a directionless bunch running themselves into the ground. The proof is in their dealings: hanging onto Kobe until the monster trade comes along is the mindset of a team that wants to win now and will only relinquish that opportunity if they get a great chance to win in the near future in return...drafting a player like Andrew Bynum - a straight out of prep school pick who has bonafide All-Star potential, but who everyone (correctly, it seems) said was at least three years of development away from reaching it, strikes of a team who is resigned to starting the rebuilding process and therefore willing to put in the time to develop a player who needs it...a team that doesn't sign or draft anyone else onto the team who would be more than a back-of-the-bench type for any true contender stinks of a team that refuses to invest the money to truly be a winner in the present. All of this adds up to a team that has one of the best players at his position not just now, but in recent history, and still can't manage anything better than .500 ball.

You see where I'm going, right? Follow me on a bit of a Mad Lib word swap....

It has been discussed often over the past year or two that the Pittsburgh Pirates - and head man Dave Littlefield- are a directionless bunch running themselves into the ground. The proof is in their dealings: hanging onto Jason Bay until the monster trade comes along is the mindset of a team that wants to win now and will only relinquish that opportunity if they get a great chance to win in the near future in return...drafting a player like Andrew McCutchen- a straight out of prep school pick who has bonafide All-Star potential, but who everyone (correctly, it seems) said was at least three years of development away from reaching it, strikes of a team who is resigned to starting the rebuilding process and therefore willing to put in the time to develop a player who needs it...a team that doesn't sign or draft anyone else onto the team who would be more than a back-of-the-bench type for any true contender stinks of a team that refuses to invest the money to truly be a winner in the present. All of this adds up to a team that has one of the best players at his position not just now, but in recent history, and still can't manage anything better than .500 ball.

So we then throw in a few more tweaks - Jason Bay isn't quite as All-World as Kobe Bryant is, nor have the Pirates even entertained any sort of offer for Jason Bay (as far as I know).

I think I'll have to start watching Laker games from now on to see if certain Pirates' brass appear in the stands.

Next up..."Da Fyoo-Chah Part Two OR Why the Pirates Need to Make Nice With the Devil Rays"

Sunday, May 27, 2007

Comedy Central

The name seems appropriate. Why? Well let's look at what's been going on lately...


The Brewers still lead the division, but have now lost 11 of their last 15 games and are in danger of hanging another one in the L column against Jake Peavy today. Any reason? Well....

During this 15 game schneid, the Brewers have (obviously) made three full turns through the rotation. During that time, Ben Sheets is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and 20K's to 4 BB's in 20 innings. The rest of Milwaukee's rotation is 1-8 with a 7.17 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and only 35 strikeouts to go with 23 walks in 65 1/3 innings.

That looks like Brewer rotations past, no?


The Reds? Well...we're finding out that their bullpen is still not very good, their offense is still too all-or-nothing (HR's and K's)...and Arroyo is still a douche.

The Cubbies....Friday night said it all. After five innings, the usually reliable Ted Lilly had surrendered five runs, and the Cubs trailed 5-1 with nine outs left. They then came out a-balsting, scoring seven runs in the seventh to take an 8-5 lead.....only to wind up losing 9-8, because Bob Howry and Wil Ohman combined to face four batters and get none of them out.


The Astros...have lost nine of their last ten games and been outscored 68-19 (!!!) in the process, including 58-12 during their six game losing streak.

The Cardinals managed to not blow a seven run lead against the nationals, and havent really beaten anybody except us lately.

Sure looks like a wide open division to me, eh? Let's see if we can find a way to win another one today.

Monday, May 7, 2007

More *$@#$ Ponderings

Hard to fit it all in one post when you only have the computer one day a week.

Will Freddy Sanchez return to form last year? Probably not. Props to Rocco from the post-game show, but here's why...

~Since 1960, batting champions have had an average drop of 37 points in their batting average the year after they won the title. This would mean a .307 average for Freddy, which is still very decent and about what he seems on pace for anyways.

~BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is a nice little indicator. This is a measure of the percentage of balls put in play that become hits for a batter. The league average is between .300 and .310 depending on who you ask, and you can see if a hitters average was way above it (unlucky) or way above it (lucky) to tell where their average might go in the future. In 2005, Sanchez's BABIP was .308, right about league average. In 2006, Freddy's BABIP was .370. It is accepted that winning a batting title involves some luck, but that is a LOT of luck. This year Freddy's BABIP is again a more normal .306. That doesn't mean that Freddy is on pace to match his current .258 average, that will continue to climb, but I don't think the preseason projections of .310 will be very far off.

~Paul Zeise, 99 times out of 100, is a douchebag who knows nothing about anything other than college football and basketball. However, he made a very interesting point Sunday night. He said that the Yankees have been derided a bit for using so many starting pitchers, shuttling players back and forth from AAA and AA - players who obviously weren't ready based on the results. However, no matter the results, it does mean one thing - the Yankees are doing everything they can think of to try to win. They are trying everyone out to see who can get them a win. The Pirates have no such interest, or they wouldn't be leaving two starters at AAA with ERA's under 2.00

~The local media is making a big poof about this "Pirates have only scored in four of their last 45 innings" or whatever stat like that they want to throw up. It looks all fancy, but there's more to it than that. The Pirates have three pitchers (Snell, Gorzo, and Duke) who, more often than not, are going to give you a quality start, which means you'll only need about four runs to win. It doesn't particularly matter whether that comes as one run in each of the four innings, or four runs in the ninth, or however. My point is, the offense only needs to get a little better, not a lot better.

~On the bright side, the teamis 11-4 when they get a quality start. That stat would be 15-0 for a good team, but at least they're wasting good startsless frequently than in the past.

Ponderings

Nothing like another horrible round of duscussion on the #1 Cochran Sports Showdown to get my blood boiling. The topic of "what's wrong with the Pirates" came up, and a number of reasons were chucked out by the talking heads there, including:

~LaRoche isn't hitting.
~Sanchez isn't hitting.
~Nobody besides Doumit is doing anything at the plate.
~No pitcher besides Snell or Gorzellany is pitching well.
~The bullpen is being exposed.

Let's take a look at all of these possibilities, shall we?

Sure, LaRoche is hitting an atrocious .167, with a .566 OPS, but there are signs of life. First of all, there's an interesting split to be had. Adam is hitting 5 for 11 (.456) in three games since sitting out, and 12 for 49 (.245) since the day he hit his third home run (the last game against the Dodgers). That isn't fantastic, but it's still an improved .636 OPS. Matter of fact, there have only been six games all year where he hasn't reached base. Not a huge stat, but worth noting. There are certain signs of life for Adam, and things are looking up.

Sanchez not hitting? Sure, his average is only .258, but don't throw in the towel just yet, people. He hit a 1 for 19 slump in the first five games of the last homestand, but he's hitting .311 with a .738 OPS otherwise and .367 with an .820 OPS in the last seven games. So give the man time. He won't be what he was last year, but he'll still be good (more on that later).

Nobody besides Doumit doing anything at the plate? It would sure seem that way considering Doumit is the only Pirate hitting above .288 right now (.456 avg and 1.302 OPS in nine starts). However, there are signs of life. I already pointed out LaRoche and Sanchez showing signs of life in the past week. Another example is Jose Bautista.
The morning of April 28th, Bautista was hitting .289 and had nine doubles in his first 80 at-bats. Very encouraging. He also was managing a meager .307 OBP, due in no small part to drawing ONE walk in his first 81 plate appearances. That has turned around - somewhat - recently. In the last nine games, Bautista is hitting .185, but has a .666 OPS in that stretch, due to six walks in his last 33 plate appearances. He is now on pace for 86 walks instead of eight. Now he just needs to get hits AND walks at the same time.
What about Paulino and his ghastly .217 average? Paulino started the season hitting .138 in the first seven games, and is hitting .254 since then. Still not great though, right? How about the last 10 games, where Ronny is hitting .271 with an .885 OPS. Five of his last six hits have been doubles or home runs. This is another very good sign.
Little bit worried about Duffy. He's 3 for 30 in his last seven starts, during which his average has dropped from .286 to 237 and his OPS has dropped from .749 to .652 - let's hope this is just a slump (one that broke with his home run Sunday?) and not a regression.

No pitcher besides Snell and Gorzellany...hmmm...

Snell - 6 starts, 5 quality starts
Gorzo - 6 starts, 5 quality starts, one just shy
Duke - 7 starts, 4 quality starts, one just shy

O.K., so that statement is only partly wrong. Duke seems to have righted the ship since his bad outings against the Giants and Brewers. Snell and Gorzellany are great. Maholm is....still figuring it out? His complete game, even if it was against Houston, shows that the ability is there. It's merely a matter of him doing it, inning after inning.

Armas is my bone to pick here. He has now made five starts. Even if I give in to the whole "the first two starts were so far apart" yadda yadda...that still leaves three starts made on regular rest. In those three starts, he made it past the fifth inning once, gave up less that three runs twice (one by the sheer grace of Jonah Bayliss saving his ass)...he has labored. Consider this - Armas has pitched part or all of 24 innings in his five starts, and has thrown 460 pitches. That's 19 pitches per inning. If that's the Armas we know and love (the one true quality start against Chicago is the only outing where he threw less than 19 pitches in more than one inning), that's 95 pitches in five innings.

So what, right, the next best option is Chacon. Wrong. Bryan Bullington and John Van Benschoten have made 12 starts between them (JVB made #6 tonight). The combined line for the two of them - 12 GS, 70 1/3 IP, 51H, 13R, 11ER, 2HR, 4HB, 29BB, 44K...1.41 ERA, 1.14 WHIP.

They aren't striking guys out particularly frequently (more Bullington, JVB has 25 K's in 32 2/3 innings), but their numbers are still drastically better than Armas, Maholm, or Chacon.

If San Francisco calls up their rookie to replace a struggling veteran because he was dominating AA , there is NO reason why one of them should get called up now to replace Armas, and the other should get his shot if Maholm doesn't fix his ship.

Forget the bullpen. They've had a few specific bad outings lately, but that happened last year too. This post is getting long anyways. On to other things...

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Right to Bear Armas In An Unarmed Division

What a rip-roaring game today. Had to leave early to switch jobs, so I missed 5/8 of the scoring, but I saw what I needed to see. Keep the recap simple, right? Straight into notes about the game.

  • What a slap for Cota. The day after Paulino plays all 16 innings, they dump him onto the 15-day DL with a "shoulder injury" so they can call up Doumit to start intead of him. Just trade the guy already.
  • That said, good job by Doumit. The only guy who ran on him, he nailed (the ump blew the call), plus a 2-4 day at the plate. I say we start him in right tomorrow to give Eldred a day off.
  • Speaking of Eldred (yet another transition), he's been shaking his left hand after some of his swings the last few games. I'm beginning to wonder.
  • Today's game, much like every other game we have (and will later) play against Houston, was yet another battle to lose first. We made Wandy Rodriguez look a lot better than he really is, and the Astros made Armas look better than he is, as well. Armas' line would've looked a lot more Tonyesque had Bayliss not come in and done an amazing job of getting through three outs in the sixth without allowing anyone to score. Kudos, Jonah.

Now on to the always fun parts....statistical oddities!

The Pirates are now, as of today's win, 10-10 and in second place. Don't be surprised if today's standings (as far as win percentages, games back, etc.) look a lot like the standings headed at least into the All-Star break, if not later. This division truly is pitiful. Consider the following....

  • The Cardinal's best pitcher right now is Braden Looper, making his first appearance as a starting pitcher since 1997, and compiling a 3-1 record and a 1.91 ERA through five starts. What makes his statistics stick out even more is that St. Louis' second best pitcher is our old friend Kip Wells, who is currently 1-4 with a 4.70 ERA. The Cardinals' rotation outside of Looper has made 16 starts and has posted a 2-9 record and a 5.28 ERA. Their offense? Not horrible, but Chris Duncan is the only player with an OPS over .805.
  • What about them Cubs? Their offense seems alright. Five everyday starters with a batting average of .294 or better, and it isn't empty average, because three of those five also have an OPS over .850. Yet they're 8-13 because that hitting has been splitsville. Ramirez, DeRosa and FLoyd haven't hit well at home, and Murton, Barrett, and Soriano haven't hit at all on the road. Their pitching on the other hand...hasn't been horrible, considering that their 2-3-4 starters have combined to post a 2.14 ERA thus far in 2007. However, that 2.14 ERA does not include one Carlos Zambrano, the supposed staff ace, who has allowed 21 runs on 30 hits while also allowing 19 walks and 7 home runs in only 27 1/3 innings. Surely, in this division, Chicago can reasonably contend with three good pitchers and their offense, but they'll still miss the playoffs and waste most of that $300 million if Zambrano doesn't get right.
  • Surely the Pirates need to worry about the Reds! Their Rule 5 draft pick, Josh Hamilton, has posted a .298 average and a 1.134 OPS through 17 games while playing some very nice defense in CF, and their three elder statesmen - Jeff Conine, Scott Hatteberg, and Alex Gonzalez - were all signed for their defense, but are all also hitting .300 or better; all of this has Cincinnati's offense sputtering a bit but still putting up runs at almost four per game. Their worst starting pitcher has posted an ERA of 4.43 so far this season. Then why are the Reds 10-12? Two of their best hitters (Gonzalez and Conine) aren't producing at home, and their catching tandem, starting third baseman, and starting second baseman are hitting a combined .192. Thus, their starting rotation has posted 12 quality starts in 22 games, with another two very nearly quality starts, and they are only 5-2 in those games.
  • Now that the series is over with Houston, we can take a closer look at them. Their problems are quite simple - they can't hit OR pitch. Their biggest power hitters are Ensberg, Berkman, and Carlos Lee. Those three have combined for a .247 average and a .755 OPS. It's great that Biggio and Loretta are hitting, but they rarely play on the same day, and the guys behind them aren't doing anything. The pitching has been strange so far - no one other than Woody Williams has really been bad so far, but no one other than Oswalt has been particularly good, either. The Jennings/Albers mishmash has four quality starts in four outings, and Rodriguez and Oswalt have six quality starts in nine outings. That seems a lot like Houston has turned into us - IF the offense can start hitting, and IF Albers and Rodriguez and Jennings can keep up their current pace when Jennings finally returns, they can turn around their season of four one-run and four two-run losses.
  • That leaves the....mighty? Brewers as serious competition for the Pirates. Johnny Estrada (C) and Bill Hall (3B) are the only everyday starters with an OPS under .805. The rotation has had some off days, but has still posted an ERA of 4.10 through 21 games. They've also had the benefit of a 4-1 record against the Pirates and Astros (with another 7 games against them in the next two weeks). Too early to tell if the Brewers are really a contender or just the least bad team.

So let's recap...Cincinnati and Chicago can't hit consistently, Houston can't hit at all, and St. Louis' patchwork rotation may already be pulling apart at the seams. This definitely appears to be a year where the Pirates can at least put up a winning record in the division.

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

LaVern Will Turn Into Shirley

Speaking of that untrackable game against Braden Looper, I can't think of a situation recently where I have been more eagerly awaiting the drop of the other shoe. The Cardinals have only provided him with 11 runs of support in 19 innings (eight of which came in his start Sunday against Milwaukee), yet Looper is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA through his first three starts. How do we know Looper will soon come crashing to Earth? Track record, of course. Looper has been in the majors full-time since 1999, and in pro ball since 1997. There is probably a very good reason why the Cardinals (the team that originally drafted him) moved him to the bullpen when they promoted him to AA 10 years ago, and an equally good reason why he was never moved back to the rotation.

As most baseball fanatics are aware, guys are typically moved to the bullpen because they don't have either the stamina or the variety in their pitching to fool the hitters more than once or twice per appearance. Looper is also 32 years old, so it is unlikely that the Cards moved him to the rotation because he suddenly learned a new pitch or increased the speed of his fastball.

Looper may be 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA, but there are signs. He has only struck out nine of the 75 batters he has faced, and three of those came against opposing pitchers. He also has walked six batters, and has only recorded 26 of his 57 outs (46.5%) by ground balls.

So Looper doesn't strike anyone out and isn't really utilizing his excellent defensive infield to help him out. This means that when batters see him a second time and have probably figured him out, those numbers are going to skyrocket unless his pitches get heavy real soon.

Don't worry, Bucco fans, St. Louis, Chicago, Cincinnati and Houston's rotations, combined with Chicago and Houston's inability to hit consistently, mean that warmer weather should equal better hitting from LaRoche and Paulino, along with a requisite jump in the standings.

Monday, April 16, 2007

By Their Chinny Chin Chins...

The Pirates sneak another one past the baseball gods, overcoming a couple of unexpected errors from Adam LaRoche and Jose Bautista and getting Albert Pujols to foul out and preserve a 3-2 victory and the Buccos 5th win of the season. This puts the team ahead of last year, where they didn't get win #5 until game 16, and hopefully they won't match last year going forward, either, since last season the 5th win was followed by a 7 game losing streak where they were outscored 34-12.

All of this mediocrity and occasional winning is covering up a few disturbing trends, though, which I think need to be brought to light.

Am I talking about Adam LaRoche? No. It's difficult to be surprised at a hitter struggling in April when he has never hit over .200 in that month.

One potential concern is Jose Bautista. He started of a smoking 6 for 13 this season, and didn't strike out in his first 26 at-bats, but has now struck out 6 times in his last 17 at-bats. Hopefully it is a slump and not a continual issue.

Ronny Paulino? Not him either. Ronny doesn't have a history of poor starts to fall back on and explain away his .189 average, but last season Paulino only played in five games prior to April 25th, so I have a funny feeling the current weather is quite disagreeable for him.

There are hitters across the majors who are struggling with the cold weather. Of the NL's top 10 hitters by OPS last season, all of whom had an OPS over .910, only two of them (Miguel Cabrera and Matt Holliday) are posting an OPS over .870 so far. Granted, a lot of the "big boppers" are struggling a bit less than Bay and LaRoche, but that should even out during the course of the season.

The problem I am worried about is the Pirates wasting the starting pitching they are getting, mainly in the form of the same impatience they showed last season. Pirates starting pitching has gone 71 innings through 11 games an average of just under 6 2/3 innings per start, and have compiled an ERA of 3.80. Remove Zach Duke's bad start against San Francisco, and those numbers become 69 innings in 10 games (7 innings per start) and an ERA of 3.00. In spite of those numbers, which include 6 quality starts and a couple more that almost were, they have compiled a measly 3-4 record.

What does that have to do with the Pirates' impatience at the plate? Well, common sense dictates that the more a pitcher throws, the more tired he gets, and the more tired he gets, the more hittable he becomes. Therefore, even with the best of pitchers, the faster you can escalate a pitch count, the more likely you are to see hittable pitches.

Apparently the Pirates don't follow this philosophy, and the stats seem to indicate that Adam LaRoche needs to start sharing his ADD medication. The team is dead last in the NL with 25 BB in 11 games - just over two walks per game. The only other NL teams who have less than 35 (three per game) are St. Louis, Milwaukee, Chicago, and San Francisco. But the Brewers and Cubs are hitting (3rd and 4th in average, respectively) ans St. Louis is pitching (3rd best ERA in the NL), so those guys aren't struggling like the Pirates.

I looked into something that I thought might be a trend, and it seems as though I was right. The Pirates are getting the starting pitchers to work very early on in games, but seem to give up on the idea after that.

I must note that when I talk about these stats, I have to leave out the game where we were shut out by Braden Looper, because I couldn't find a pitch-by-pitch log.

The Pirates have seen upwards of four pitches per plate appearance in either the first or second inning of every game (1st inning of games 1, 3, 4, 8, 10, and 11; 2nd inning of games 2, 5, 6, and 9), to the tune of 4.47 pitches per plate appearance for 53 hitters in those innings. Over the remainder of the innings where Pirate hitters have faced the opposing starter, 217 hitters have seen a mere 3.52 pitches per plate appearance - a full pitch less!

Remove the four other really good innings the team had (five hitters seeing 23 pitches twice in the 4th and 6th against Randy Keisler; six hitters seeing 29 pitches in the 6th against Aaron Harang; five hitters seeing 24 pitches in the 9th against Russ Ortiz) and that average drops to an even lower 3.38 pitches per plate appearance.

So all that numbers show you a team that has one good inning early on where they work the count, then start hacking away. Seeing almost a pitch and a half less per plate appearance after you work the count early on defeats the purpose of doing so. Today was the perfect example. In jumping out to a 3-0 lead in the first inning, the Pirates sent eight hitters to the plate and made Anthony Reyes throw a total of 47 pitches (almost six P/PA), finishing the inning with three hits and two walks. During the remaining eight innings, the Bucs sent 28 batters up and saw only 98 pitches, and half of those batters saw three pitches or less, managing only five hits and one walk in those eight innings. This type of patience seems counter productive, but gets muddled when you compare it to something else...

The Pirates are hitting 16-44 (.364) when putting the 1st pitch in play, and only 60-282 (.213) otherwise.

So perhaps my diatribe about patience is ruined? Perhaps. Then again, it could be a combination of things. For instance, in today's game, the Pirates had two instances where the first hitter smacked a triple on the first pitch of the inning, then spent the rest of the inning stuck at third.

Only time will tell.

Monday, April 2, 2007

Well Whoopity-Doo

The Pittsburgh Pirates officially got their first win a week earlier than last season, though it wasn't necessarily due to anything fantastic they did on their own.

Good news: The team won 4-2 in extra innings after being down 2-1 and down to their final out; Jose Bautista, Jack Wilson, and Nate McClouth combined to go 5-10; Zach Duke wasn't fantastic (8H, no K's), but still held Houston to two runs and only made a few mistakes (Scott's HR and a couple hard 2B's) - if he improves from here, I'll take it; we apparently still own Lidge; and the bullpen was perfect.

Bad news: Castillo was all glove, no hit; LaRoche struck out four times in five at-bats; Paulino was also ofer in five at-bats; the Pirates showed a troublesome lack of patience - Jack Wilson got Oswalt to throw 12 pitches in his first at-bat of the game, and Duffy drew a walk in his first. Outside of that, Oswalt threw 80 pitches in 7 1/3 innings, and the Pirates drew exactly one other walk - off Lidge. Not so good.

In spite of that, the Pirates faced one of the five best pitchers in the National League and managed to pitch and defend well enough to hang around and expose Houston's bullpen for what it is. A win is a win, but this looks an awful lot like the good pitch, great defend, no hit teams of the recent past.

We'll see what happens the next couple days against less stellar pitching in Jason Jennings and Woody Williams.


Elsewhere around the league:

  • Curt Schilling got outpitched by the newly-rich Gil Meche, Mark Grudzielanek rediscovered his bat (if only for one day) and the Royals beat the Red Sox, 7-1.
  • Ben Sheets may or may not be back. Sheets pitched a complete game, gave up a home run to Jeff Kent to lead off the second inning, and allowed only one other hit all game in a 7-1 Milwaukee win. Then again, he of the 10.5 K/9 only struck out three yesterday.
  • Adam Dunn hit two home runs in his first two at-bats of 2007, Aaron Harang was good, and Carlos Zambrano most definitely was not. Reds 5, Cubs 1.
  • As bad as Zambrano and Schilling were, Jose Contreras was even worse, giving up eight runs in an inning-plus of work, and Cleveland rgave the scoreboard an early workout in a 12-5 win.
  • Washington played so poorly against Florida that their star of the game was...Dimitri Young?

It was a day full of mediocre pitching. Carl Pavano, Brandon Webb and Johan Santana's teams got wins in spite of their mediocrity, as did C.C. Sabathia.

Should be a fun year.

NL Central

Cincinnati 1-0

Pittsburgh 1-0

Chicago 0-1

Houston 0-1

St. Louis 0-1

Even if it's only for a day....

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Early Returns

There is not a single universe in existence where this can be a good thing.


"The Pirates' new fifth starter is awesome, baby!!"

This is not the picture I wanted to stumble across. Couldn't he go throw out the first...whatever at a Duke lacrosse game or something? Good grief.

Just throwing it out there, soon will come my own personal division preview...

Monday, March 5, 2007

Spring has Sprung

I have officially got the baseball juju back in my veins, as my 2007 copy of Baseball Prospectus has arrived in the post today. I shall waste no time, diving right into the potential starting lineup:

Catcher - Ronny Paulino
"...was lost in the great flood of quality rookies of 2006, but posted a WARP3 (Wins Above Replacement Player) behind only Brian McCann (ATL) and Russell Martin (LAD)...a plus guy behind the plate, but his lack of noticeable secondary offensive skills are a bit worrisome in a regular; a batting average collapse would take his whole offensive game with it."

This sounds about right, though if he can put up the line that BP is projecting - 12-62-.289-.344-.440 - I don't think I would be too unhappy.

First Base - Adam LaRoche
"...finally had a breakout season...was it a three month hot streak, or a new performance level?"

BP feels that he is peaking, and will most likely match his numbers from last year, rather than go up or down. I wouldn't particularly complain about that, and again, their projected line - 27-89-.283-.353-.526 - wouldn't be the end of the world, though it sure looks a lot like a certain player from 2004.

Second Base - Jose Castillo
"...proves that anyone can be Albert Pujols for four weeks. after three years of waiting, it's time for the Pirates to consider moving on."

Ouch. Well, I can't say I'm not beginning to disagree with them. BP looks for him to duplicate his '05 season, which would certainly be some measure of improvement over last year, but not enough to justify keeping him on the field. Here's hoping he proves us all wrong.

Shortstop - Jack Wilson
"...the kind of player who would get more attention for his fielding if he were surrounded by a team of real hitters...an $8.4 million option for 2010, or a $600,000 buyout; that will be the best six hundred grand the Pirates ever spent."

Another review that is not necessarily unwarranted, but certainly brutal. They're projecting Wilson to not be any better or worse on either side of the ball this season, which is not what I was hoping to hear (y'know, maybe get an excuse to not be pessimistic for once), but we'll certainly have to wait and see.

Third Base - Freddy Sanchez
"...not to rain too hard on teh happy parade, but he is 29 already, doesn't hit the long ball, doesn't walk, and doesn't steal...if he were the team's shortstop, we'd be that much more excited about him...the kind of player who can hit .300 and not be all that productive"

Not very promising, though it seems they are down on Freddy more because he isn't a typical masher 3B like Cabrera, Chipper, etc. I'd like to have him at 2B (where this review would be less negative) but that won't happen. More on that later.

Left Field - Jason Bay
"...a powerful presence cornered by the brutish, unthinking mediocrity of those around him...ala Ralph Kiner in the '40's, he's the sole star on a team seemingly unable to develop more than one player at a time. When Branch Rickey came to the Pirates, he believe the team could be jump-started by trading Kiner for a package of talent. Ownership dallied, and by the time Rickey pulled it off, Kiner was declining and they didn't get much back. The current Pirates aren't in the same position - moving Bay would probably destroy what little credibility they have...important to note that Bay got a late start, his VORP went down from 72.6 to 49.7, and his PECOTA comparables (Tim Salmon, Dale Murphy, Eric Davis, Jesse Barfield) all didn't have great second acts to their careers."

Whew. First of all, it's impressive to compare him to Kiner. Second, I'm not sure how trading Bay would affect the team's credibility (though I'm not sure there's any left, anyway). Third, that line about his PECOTA comparables isn't entirely true.

First, Tim Salmon. He had an age 27 year not unlike Bay's, going 30-98-.286/.386/.501. Salmon put up equally good numbers at age 28, slightly down but still good numbers at 29, bad numbers (though mostly due to injury) at age 30, then one last good year at 31 before he fell off the map. I'd call that respectable.

Second, Dale Murphy. He had an even more comparable year at age 27, posting 36-121-.302/.393/.540. Murphy then posted numbers just as good or better three times over the next four seasons before finally slowing down at age 32 (Murph is a HOFer for a reason).

Third, Eric Davis. He posted an age 27 year similar to Bay's, then immediately fell off the map after that. OK, so there's a warning flag.

Fourth, Jesse Barfield. Barfield had his big year at age 26, and anyone who followed stats could have predicted his immediate dropoff. That season was the only time Barfield ever broke 28HR or 85 RBI. He's more comparable in that way to Adrian Beltre than Bay.

His other two comparables are Jim Edmonds and Hack Wilson, both players who got better after age 27.

So I think the negativity towards Bay is a bit unjustified at best.

Center Field - Chris Duffy
"...if he can hit somewhere between [his 2006 post-return] rates and those projected in his PECOTA, he can be a useful fourth outfielder, or even a starter on some teams, such as this one."

I agree that a line like that would be nice (that would average out to roughly .290/.345/.391) though there is hardly any reason to hope for it. This is personally one spot where I would like to have my eternal pessimism proven wrong.

Right Field - Xavier Nady/Ryan Doumit
Nady: simply put, "a platoon player at best."
Doumit: "if he can stay healthy for more than two minutes at a time, he may be more valuable to the Pirates as a trading chip"

Not much to argue with on either count here. Nady's righty/lefty splits are disastrous, and Doumit was a very good bench player at best who has been bumped down the food chain even further by Paulino and LaRoche.

Bench/Waiting in the Wings

Brian Bixler: "...a decent hitter with good speed...it's time for him to take Triple-A by storm and start that major league career sooner rather than later"

Rajai Davis: "Chris Duffy Lite"

Yurendell DeCaster: "his PECOTA comparables (Casey Blake, Robb Quinlan) suggest there could be some corner utility work in his future, but he'll have to catch a few breaks to get even that far."

Brad Eldred: "...just young enough that there's time to recover and forge a short big league career, but anyone with his weak sense of the strike zone is more likely to break hearts than deliver souvenirs as regularly as his power might seem to promise."

Jody Gerut: "...with Nady's issues against right-handed pitching, he just might get his career back on track."

Andrew McCutchen: "...the real thing: a five tool player with no weaknesses."

Nate McClouth: "FOGy - Fourth Outfielder Guy...isn't quite as good as Duffy"

Steven Pearce: "...hit just enough to stay in the periphery of the organizational plan...given his age, rate of progress and accomplishment, and how hard it is to make it as a major-league first baseman, this liting may be just a courtesy"

Neil Walker: "didn't hit well in teh Arizona Fall League, which is like being on the faculty at Bordello University and not scoring with a co-ed."

Jose Bautista: "A hallmark of bad teams is that they take perfect complementary players for contenders and stretch them into starting roles. Here's Exhibit A"

McCutchen and a whole bunch of stiffs. What a surprise. But how about the rotation, right? Right?

Zach Duke
"...the NL's highest BABIP (.336) [one of] three qualifying starters among the ten worst BABIP in the league...a consequence of the Pirates' last-in-the-majors defensive efficiency rating...compounded by his declining strikeout rate, which dropped to dangerous levels"

So BP is projecting that Duke himself will have a better year (WHIP, ERA, K/9, K:BB all improved at least a bit) but for his record to not be any better. Interesting.

Tom Gorzelanny
Not much to quote for Gorzo, mentions his injury, and how his .264 BABIP will probably rise this year. I wouldn't argue, except to say that it won't rise much. According to Cory, Gorzo is more of a strikeout pitcher than his '06 numbers show (9.18 K/9 in the minors from '04-'06), and he keeps the ball on the ground, so give him some D and he'll give you a shot. Liking where Gorzo is headed.

Paul Maholm
"...a pitch-to-contact, ground-ball lefty." Then they ramble about his PECOTA changing rather unfavorably, but whatever. If Maholm can rein in his walks, it will make a world of difference, and perhaps his good second half can become the rule, not the exception.

Ian Snell
not much to mention here, except that he owned righties and lefties owned him. Prediction of more of the same this season for Snell, which I wouldn't be particularly disappointed in.

i'm not even going to discuss the mediocre amalgamation that is our fifth starter.

So, judging by those pessimistic bastards at Baseball Prospectus, our pitching will take another step forward this season, but it won't make a big difference in the standings, because the offense and defense won't follow. Darn, and I thought I might have a reason to smile today.

Monday, January 29, 2007

Duff Beer

It appears Jason Bay has sparked the next version of the great debate among those in Pirate Nation...

Bay stated - rather accurately, everyone agrees - that you can hem and haw about what will and won't happen with the Pirates lineup this season, but in truth it all begins and ends with the leadoff spot.

Enter Chris Duffy.

Chris is suddenly a very discussed man, now that the Pirates' possession of a genuinely formidable 3-4-5 lineup combination (my aforementioned Fred, Dave, and Jay-Ray). Exactly how much Chris will be on base for these gentlemen to bring home, and therefore how useful he will be, is a topic with a variety of opinions. Here are the avenues, drive down them at your own risk (note: Duffy's defense is widely considered to be above average at worst, so we'll leave that half of the discussion at home):

Avenue A: Duffy = MiLB Averages

This theory has Duffy as a .300 hitter with a roughly .800 OPS, but who doesn't work particularly well as a leadoff hitter, because most of his high OBP is tied up in that high average - he doesn't have the requisite plate discipline (walks, etc) to be a true leadoff. At the same time, I can't help but think: I may be crazy, but is it not true that a .375 OBP is above average, regardless of exactly what the OBP is composed of?


Avenue B: Duffy = MLB Averages

This thought train would place Duffy as a .280 hitter with a roughly .700 OPS, and who again has a lot of OBP points tied up in that average. However, I think this stat line is a bit less reliable, what with Duffy still just shy of a full season worth of AB's at the major league level, as opposed to the 2000+ AB's from the previous example. Even at that, Duffy would probably, in conjunction with his defense, rate as a slightly above average CF at the major league level. This theory is less optimistic, but certainly not enough to rain on Duffy's parade.


Avenue C: Duffy = MLB Highs

Duffy's major league numbers equal a bit more than 3/4 of a season, and those numbers can be split up into almost even thirds. In part one of three, Duffy's initial cup of MLB-sized coffee, Duffy didn't do a ton other than hit, but he did well at that (.341 AVG, ,385 OBP in 39 games). In part three of three, the second half of last season, Duffy wasn't quite that good, although he still put up respectable numbers (.282, .345 plus 23 SB in 53 games). Mush these Duffys together and you get a line that looks something like: .304 AVG, .369 OBP, .389 SLG, .758 OPS. Hmm, that looks a lot like Duffy's minor league averages, but without the extra base hits. Though this presents well as lead-off, since he gets on plenty and doesn't have the extra base power of a lower order hitter.

Avenue D: Duffy = MLB Lows

This is where part two of three comes in. Duffy, by all accounts, wasn't all there for the beginning of the 2006 season, to the tune of .194/.255/.530. This, of course, projects as a player who doesn't deserve a place on a major league roster no matter how good his defense is. However, I think it is safe - considering the small sample size and extreme outlier nature of these numbers compared to the rest of his stats - to qualify these numbers as an anomaly that we probably won't see again over any extended period.

So all in all, what do we have here?It would appear that, for the most part, we have a very good, but not elite, defensive center fielder, who is at least good (if not above average) at getting on base, even though he struggles to get on base in ways other than getting hits.

Most folks would probably say that his lack of walks point to a lack of plate discipline that is highly desirable in a prototypical leadoff hitter. But again, I bring up my point that if youhave a player who can get on base upwards of 35% of the time, why does it matter exactly how he does it? Those who pooh-pooh him as leadoff fail to remember that, due to having established players in the middle of the lineup (sanchez, bay, laroche, paulino), not putting duffy in the leadoff means shoving him to 7th or 8th in the order. That can be seen as nothing other than an equally bad idea, since his 23SB in 53 games after the all-star break showed that Duffy has base-stealing speed and ability that would be wasted in a spot that low.

So what does all this mean for 2007? Here's an interesting comparison.



AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
2121 376 639 105 30 29 209
1844 311 546 93 30 28 160
SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
146 44 169 359 .301 .372 .420 .792
118 47 186 239 .296 .372 .425 .797

Well golly gee, them lines sure do look similar, don't they? The red line is Chris Duffy's career minor league line, and the green is the career minor league line of Houston's Chris Burke. Based on the six year sample size, I don't think it very unreasonable to call Duffy and Burke reasonably similar players (Burke being a right-handed Duffy with a little better plate discipline and a bit less speed).

Burke, like Duffy, is opening the season playing center field and hitting leadoff for Houston. Granted, the two don't compare defensively - Duffy is a natural center fielder, Burke is in center field because Wily Taveras got traded and Craig Biggio refuses to die. However they seem reasonably similar on offense.

They may be even more similar, since a bit of that discipline (in the form of K:BB ratio) Burke displayed in the minors went away, and he wound up posting a .276/.347/.765 line in his second significant stint, along with 9 HR and 40 RBI (366 AB's). I feel safe in saying that a line similar to that over a full season is probably a worst case scenario for Duffy.

But there's a bigger issue here, where the heck does Duffy hit? He can't be placed in the 3-4-5-6 area because he doesn't have the power or complete package to fit right...he can't hit 7-8 because placing a player who averaged 40 SB per season in his minor league career in front of the pitcher is an incredible waste...

That only leaves two places. Either A) you hit Duffy first or second (as the Pirates have every intention of doing), or B) you do that this season to build his rep, then trade him to an American League team that can hit Duffy at the bottom of the order without wasting his speed.

Whew. So there you have it. Chris Duffy is in the wrong league. Who knew?

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Fan Logic

O.K.....follow me on this logic chain:

Adam Laroche
>
Laroche College
>
"college"
>
"college" t-shirt, made famous by John Belushi in Animal House
>
John Belushi's character, "Blutarsky"
>
Adam "Blutarsky" Laroche, and/or game-time chants of "Toga! Toga! Toga!"

it may not be perfectly logical, or direct, but at least it would be original and fun, right?

O.K., Semi-Hiatus

What, there's finally something interesting to put here.

Was reading an MLB article on Yahoo! that threw out three very interesting tidbits...

#1 "Pirates G.M. Dave Littlefield completed a quest of sorts when he acquired 1B Adam LaRoche from the Braves. Back in 1999, when Littlefield was an assistant G.M. with the Marlins, Florida drafted LaRoche out of a community college in the 42nd round but failed to sign him. The Braves grabbed him in the 29th round in 2000. " I knew that LaRoche had been drafted several times: perhaps this reveals DL's true motivation, above all else? Maybe.

#2 A little insight into our new buddy Adam LaRoche College: "Hitting isn't LaRoche's only strength; he also figures to improve the Pirates' defense. 'Having him at first is like having another shortstop on the field,' a rival scout says. 'He's a really slick, comfortable, fundamentally sound defender. He's agile and mobile. That's a big upgrade for Pittsburgh.'" I think that is easily the most glowing defensive review for LaRoche that I have seen. I will wait to see it with mine own two eyeballs, though.

#3 The Devil Rays are shopping bot B.J. Upton and Delmon Young, and not a single team has come forward with a serious offer. The article mentions several execs being turned off to Upton by an incident in Durham last year where he refused to collect balls after BP one day. Delmon Young is, of course, an ump-beater. Seriously, though, noone wants to make an offer for him?

#4 The Toronto Blue Jays are apparently mulling over trading CF Alex Rios and/or LF Reed Johnson, since both players are far apart on arbitration (3.1 mil to 2.0 for Rios, 3.6 to 2.5 for Johnson). The one that wins in arbitration is said to be destined for trade bait status - Toronto of course wants pitching in return.

Friday, January 12, 2007

Nutting New

This was too weird to not post. Anyone else get emailed this from pirates.com?

PITTSBURGH PIRATES NEWS WE WILL.
=======================================================================
January 12, 2007
FROM THE DESK OF ROBERT NUTTING, CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD
Dear Pirates Fans:


Today, Kevin McClatchy and I announced that we have mutually requested Major League Baseball approve a change of control within the ownership group of the Pirates from Kevin to myself. This change will provide absolute clarity regarding the ownership structure of the team.
As Chairman and control person for the organization, my role is to provide strategic leadership to the organization. As CEO, Kevin remains responsible for the day-to-day operations of the ballclub.

I understand how important the Pirates are to you, the fans, and this community. Like you, I believe there is absolutely nothing more important than for our team to be able to win, not just for one year, but on a consistent basis. I am committed to providing Kevin
and General Manager Dave Littlefield the greatest amount of support possible to accomplish that. Our fans deserve it, our community deserves it and I expect it.

In order to consistently succeed on the field, it's critical that we spend our resources effectively, while continuing to build our team from within. This is the plan I firmly believe in. It is one that Dave was brought here to develop and execute, one that he and Kevin are accountable for and one that I have confidence is working.

I am energized about our core group of exciting, young, talented players. We have one of the youngest teams in all of baseball and now will be able to keep them together for several years. Coming off last season's second half success, I am confident that this team, under the leadership of Jim Tracy, will continue to improve. I very much look forward to the 2007 season.

I am very proud to be the Chairman of this historic franchise and want you to be just as proud to be one of our fans. Thank you for your continued support of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
I hope to see you at PNC Park this season, and for many more seasons to come.

Sincerely,
Robert Nutting
Chairman of the Board
Pittsburgh Pirates


bear with me while i get my bearings enough to bother picking this turd apart.

Thursday, January 4, 2007

Enufzenuf

O.K. I am fairly certain that between New Pirates Generation, Bucco Blog, Bucs Dugout, WHYGAVS, Honest Wagner, and the scads of others, there seems to be a saturation point that has been reached with Pirate blogs. Between that and the fact that it is now officially downseason, "82" is officially going on hiatus until either Valenties Day or when pitchers and catchers report, whichever day I like better.

Granted, this is also in an effort to focus more on other ventures, namely the National Sports Review and my contributions to Pensblog, but still, see y'all in February. Or March. Or whenever.

Wednesday, January 3, 2007

Brian Lawrence

New Pirate rumor: Pirates interested in signing Brian Lawrence. Lawrence had surgery to repair multiple partial tears in his rotator cuff and labrum. A decent bit of surgery, but nothing unusual.

On one hand, this seems like a decent signing. Lawrence has put up solid, innings eater type numbers for most of his career with San Diego, which is just the kind of pitcher the Pirates could use. He also, due to the spook of surgery (and only being pursued by NL West teams not named LA or SF) could come noticeably cheaper than the equivalent Tomo Ohka (now being chased by the Mets).

Then I started researching, and the more I looked, the less I like this idea. Sure, it would be very reasonable to project Lawrence as a 10-15 win, 200 inning, 4.50 ERA type pitcher. Hooray. Except it typically takes a pitcher a full season to get back into form, so we could reasonably expect numbers worse than that, at least this season. On top of that, Lawrence's numbers against the NLCD are worse than his career averages*.

In 37 career starts against the NLCD, Lawrence is 10-22 with a 4.69 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP and 27 HR.
In 19 starts in NLCD parks, he is 5-13 with a 5.70 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP and 18HR.

Those don't strike me as great numbers, though I give him slight reprieve for a 2.5:1 K/BB ratio.

I dunno, maybe he'll be a very respectable pitcher. I just don't see it happening in 2007 - probably in 20008, by which time we will have traded him.
* For simplicity's sake, I am ignoring his two 1 inning relief appearances against the Pirates and Reds.

"Dice"

Yes. Dice. Andrew Dice CLay? No, silly, Daisuke Matsuzaka. This is a baseball blog, remember?

Much has been made about how the large sum of money the Red Sox forked over for Dice ($103 million total) will be worth the investment if he can be a solid and consistent #1 or #2 starter. It is never mentioned, though, that this move has had an even further reaching, twofold effect on their hated rivals, the Yankees.

Yankee fans en masse were pencilling Matsuzaka into their 2007 rotations since the end of the World Baseball Classic. Certainly it stings to get outbid by your main rival for a potential stud. The Red Sox secretly got a second victory form this. Perhaps in part due to the unrest in Yankee Nation over missing on Daisuke, the Yankees went out and paid roughly $40 million in negotiation fees and salary for pitcher Kei Igawa. Igawa is being compared, on a regular basis, to Tomo Ohka. I don't think I need to explain further.

So the Red Sox not only outbid the Yankees for a top-of-the-rotation starter, but they simultaneously paniced the Yanks into grossly overpaying for a back end starter. That has to feel pretty good for Theo, even if he has continuied to ruin the spirit of Red Sox Nation to do it.

Down Time Discussion

OR "How Dave Littlefield is only the 6th Worst GM in Baseball"
Well, OK, I'm only specifically referring to this offseason, but it's a start, right? Let's take a look at the things Dave hasn't done this offseason:
  • Mortgage the Future - this is what happens when you sign any massive contract. Sure, you may be guaranteeing that a marquee talent stays on your roster in his prime, but you also are guaranteeing that you have zero flexibility during any point in the coming years. Example #1, Alfonso Soriano. Eight years, $136 million. This contract ensures that, for at least the next couple seasons, the Cubs have at least one legitimate 40-40 guy on tehir roster. Therin lies the upside of the signing. Unfortunately, there are multiple downsides. He will be 31 going into the '07 season, so he is presumably at least beginning his decline; the thing the Cubs suck most at is getting players on base, and Soriano is better at driving runners in than anything else; and of course, he is signed for eight years - there is no way he is productive for all eight, so the Cubs will be stuck with an overpaid player for at least a few years in the future. Dave has done no such thing (mostly - and justifiably - thanks to one Derek Bell, I'm sure). I also have to lump Toronto's J.P. Ricciardi into this mortgage-the-future-to-win-now cast.
  • Redundancy Department of Redundancy - He has not engaged himself in a situation where he has signed players that he already has on the roster. Huh? Several cases in point here. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County GM Bill Stoneman went out and signed Shea Hillenbrand. Hillenbrand is a right-handed 1B-only guy who hits for average and that's it. Anaheim already has a bunch of guys who hit for average and nothing else, and two other 1B prospects who are MLB ready now. Baltimore is another example. They gave Aubrey Huff the 7.5 million per year he was looking for. Huff is an aging, stop-gap utility player with respectable power and average, who is most useful at 1B but will probably wind up in the outfield. Except they already have Jay Gibbons, who has the exact same skill set. Yet another example is the other Los Angeles, the Dodgers. I understand the desire to "win now" and have "proven talent" on your roster. They went out and gave a hefty chunk of money to bring in Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez, and to resign Nomar Garciaparra. Just a few problems with this concept. Gonzalez is 39 and a 20-80-.280 guy at best. Garciaparra is 33, but still capable of about that same line. Juan Pierre is 29 and capable of .350+ OBP and 40+ SB, but certainly not worth $44 million. Beyond that, however, is a bigger problem. Why would you spend all that money on those three players when you already have Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and James Loney, who are 24, 22, and 22 respectively and all capable of the same production? That is income that is much better invested somewhere else. Granted, similar moves by DL have probably been avoided due to the Burnnitz/Randa/Casey fiasco of last season, but at least he's avoiding them now.
  • General Stupidity - which is about all we can use to describe Bill Bavasi, the GM in Seattle. He traded away Rafael Soriano, his best young reliever and best overall pitching prospect not named King Felix. What did he get in return? Future Hall-of-Shamer Horacio Ramirez, who in four big-league seasons has averaged 8 wins, 130 IP, a 1:1 K/BB ratio, and a DL stint every other season. And he's now they're #3 starter. Then Bavasi went out and gave away two more prospects for Jose Vidro. Vidro is 33 years old and will either a) take away playing time from up-and-comer Jose Lopez at 2B or b) compete with Jose Guillen and Ben Broussard for time at DH. Neither of those situations will end well.

See? All those GM's making moves that are anything from desperate to unnecessary to downright stupid, and we didn't have to say Dave's name once. But there's more to it than that: some of these moves actually help Dave Littlefield if he is smart enough to capitalize.

#1 Bill Stoneman signing Hillenbrand means that Casey Kotchman is now third on the Angels depth chart at 1B behind Kendry Morales. Everyone is down on him, but cut him a break, he had mono fer chrissakes. Ripe for the picking.

#2 Noone is discussing this, but there's a chance that since Bavasi signed Vidro, he would part with Lopez. He is a good defensive 2B, and a good offensive 2B who is still growing. Seattle desperately needs pitching. They have a solid ace (Hernandez) a solid closer (Putz) and that's really it. Just a thought

#3 The Cubs signing Alfonso Soriano means that Matt Murton (.297 avg, .809 OPS, 13 HR, 62 RBI) will now be sharing time with Daryle Ward as 4th OF. He can't be too happy with that. The Cubs ned pitching, and what do we have? Pitching!

Just some ideas.